2024-05-03 05:54:17
Ukraine is coming under increasing pressure in Donbass. Three core problems in particular are to blame for this. Now European supporters are particularly in demand, says an expert.
For Ukraine, the past few weeks have been a rollercoaster of emotions. At the front there is no pause in the brutal Russian war of aggression. What’s more: Russian troops are making advances particularly in the Donetsk region. They were recently able to take several towns at once, putting increasing pressure on the Ukrainian defenders.
Last week there was a collective sigh of relief: first the US House of Representatives and then the Senate approved a $61 billion aid package for Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was relieved: “This is a decision that will save our lives,” he said after the House of Representatives’ decision.
Video | Putin’s troops attack with columns of “turtle tanks”.
Ukraine is now receiving urgently needed supplies of ammunition and military equipment. However, cries of joy and hopes that Ukrainian troops will soon be able to expel the Russian aggressors from their country are premature. Although US military aid alleviates the Ukrainians’ problems, the hurdles on the way to victory in this war remain high for the defenders.
- You can read current developments on the war in Ukraine in the news blog.
The problems on the Ukrainian side can be broken down into three key points: insufficient supplies of ammunition, a lack of personnel and poorly developed defenses. The United States has delivered, and European supporters are now particularly in demand.
Insufficient ammunition supply
Although the US aid package is enormous in scope, it is also fraught with two problems. The military expert Christian Mölling explains it in an interview with t-online: On the one hand, the help is starting now, “but it can take some time until the equipment and ammunition are actually at the front,” says Mölling. On the other hand, even the most comprehensive aid package will be used up at some point. “Ukraine’s supporters must now think ahead,” says the expert from the German Foreign Policy Society.
To person
Christian Mölling heads the research institute of the German Society for Foreign Policy (DGAP). His focus is on the security and defense policy of Germany and European countries, military capabilities and the arms industry.
“The Europeans are running out of time,” warns Mölling. Given the presidential elections due in November and the prospect of Donald Trump’s renewed term in the White House, the USA could soon no longer be the most important supporter. Then the European supporters would have to compensate for that. One thing is particularly important: “We have to get out of the Christmas present mentality,” says Mölling. According to the expert, the Ukrainians should constantly get what they need to win the war. “An inadequate weapons package every six months is not enough.”
Shortage of staff
Something is now also happening with the second problem – the lack of personnel on the part of the Ukrainians. In mid-April, the Ukrainian parliament passed a reform of the mobilization law, which should come into force in mid-May and make it possible to draft up to 500,000 soldiers. Here you can read more about it.
But the law is not without controversy: it does not contain any hoped-for limits on length of service. In addition, Ukrainian consulates have recently restricted services abroad for able-bodied men in order to encourage them to return home and serve on the front.
Polish military analyst Konrad Muzyka believes the shortage of personnel is “the key factor that will have the greatest impact on the situation at the front in the next three to four months.” Little by little, new soldiers will now come to the front, writes Muzyka on Platform This does not increase the soldiers’ chances of survival.
Hardly any fortified defenses
Observers are also concerned about the expansion of defenses. Military expert Muzyka has so far mainly identified “point positions” in satellite images from the regions around Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka in Donetsk, but not fortified defense lines. This favors flanking maneuvers that Russian troops are already carrying out in these areas, according to Muzyka. Russia’s troops are attacking Ukrainian positions from several sides. “We can only hope that more fortifications will be built deep inside Donetsk Oblast,” the analyst said.