2023-09-23 12:00:00
INTERVIEW. Will a pro-Russian lead the Slovak government after the September 30 elections? A former head of diplomacy warns Europe.
Comments collected by Marc Nexon The Slovak Robert Fico, 59, seems well placed to win the legislative elections on September 30 and take the head of the government. © MATEUSZ WLODARCZYK / NurPhoto / NurPhoto via AFP Published on 09/23/2023 at 12:00 p.m.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, known for his closeness to Vladimir Putin, could soon have an ally within the European Union. The Slovakian Robert Fico, 59, seems well placed to win the legislative elections on September 30 and take the helm of the government.
Already Prime Minister twice before resigning in 2018 following the scandal triggered by the assassination of journalist Jan Kuciak, former criminal law specialist Fico is campaigning by surfing on Russian propaganda. In the event of victory, he promises to stop military aid to Ukraine and to advocate for the lifting of sanctions against Moscow. Involved with his relatives in several corruption cases, he should also bring the judicial institution into line. Diplomat Rastislav Kacer, 58, Minister of Foreign Affairs until last May, discusses the risks of his return to power.
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Point : What would be the consequences of a victory for Robert Fico on September 30?
Rastislav Kacer: That would pose a big problem. First, he would rule the country with an iron fist. He would then come to power with a heightened sense of vengeance. During his previous mandates, there were many scandals and corruption cases which affected those close to him which are the subject of investigations. He would do everything to ensure that these did not come to an end. I know him since a long time. When I was ambassador to Washington and Budapest, I had the opportunity to meet him on multiple occasions. We didn’t always agree, but it was possible to discuss. Power changed him, he became paranoid.
What would be the impact on support for Ukraine?
Its policy towards Ukraine would be the opposite of the decisions taken. By cutting off military aid to kyiv, he would deal a blow to the European Union’s foreign policy and damage Slovakia’s reputation. He would act like Viktor Orban in Hungary and enter into endless negotiations with Brussels. As for Putin, he would welcome a new ally of Russia present in NATO institutions and capable of breaking their unity. In recent days, Fico has claimed that if a referendum were held on Slovakia’s continued membership in NATO, it would result in a negative vote. He is already waving the red cloth.
What is Russia’s game?
Russia plays a considerable role in its current rise. She supports many parties including the most extremist like Republika. There have been cases where members of Russian military intelligence were caught paying Slovak agents of influence. Just a few days ago, a Russian diplomat was expelled. The Russian intelligence services are not the only ones involved. Hungarian agencies are also very active. They finance discreet NGOs from Budapest, which convey a pro-Russian message. It’s a hidden campaign. But it is difficult to oppose it since you are dealing with a partner of the European Union. For Orban, it is an opportunity to strengthen the axis in favor of Putin, to break his isolation and to attenuate his image as a demon in Europe. He and Fico would use all their weight to block sanctions against Moscow. There is nevertheless a difference between Orban and Fico: the first has a tactical intelligence that the second does not have.
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How can we explain the response that Russian propaganda receives in Slovakia?
There are historical reasons that date back to the end of the 19th century, to the time of the Austro-Hungarian Empire, when the Germanic element was dominant on the political scene. From then on, the idea existed in intellectual circles that Russian power was the only one capable of protecting the Slavic population. This pan-Slavism continues to this day. Added to this are the consequences of the Second World War and the belief that the Red Army liberated the country. The idea is only partially true, but Russian propaganda is developing on this ground. The Kremlin understands that on the eastern steps of Europe, Slovakia is the weak link, a vulnerable nation, which has only been independent for thirty years. They invest a huge amount of resources there, more in proportion than in any other European country. Last thing: the Slovaks never really fought for themselves. There is a sense of fear within society, a desire for neutrality and a desire to avoid confrontation with Russia.
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