Russian soldiers would leave Chernobyl, ceasefire in Mariupol

► Ceasefire in Mariupol

On the 36th day of the Russian invasion, a ceasefire could come into effect in Mariupol on Thursday March 31. The Russian Ministry of Defense announced on Wednesday evening a “silent diet”, or a local ceasefire, from 10 a.m. Thursday (11 a.m. in Paris) in the besieged and shelled port in order to evacuate civilians. This measure should make it possible to open a humanitarian corridor to the Ukrainian city of Zaporijjia with a stopover via the port of Berdiansk, under Russian control.

→ UNDERSTAND. War in Ukraine: a “catastrophic” situation for civilians in Mariupol

“For this humanitarian operation to succeed, we propose to carry it out with the direct participation of representatives of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) and the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC)”the ministry added.

The Russian ministry is also asking kyiv to guarantee the “unconditional respect” of this local ceasefire via a written notification sent to the Russian side. Moscow also wants the Ukrainian military to commit to providing security for bus convoys that will travel along the agreed route for this corridor.

► Russian soldiers would leave the Chernobyl power plant

Russian forces are beginning to withdraw from the Chernobyl nuclear site, which they took control of on the first day of the invasion of Ukraine on February 24, a senior Pentagon official said on Wednesday. The Russian army also retreated outside Gostomel airport, northwest of kyiv.

“Chernobyl is another area where they are starting to reposition themselves, leaving Chernobyl to go to Belarus”a senior US official who requested anonymity told reporters. “We think they are leaving, I can’t tell you if they are all gone”he added.

→ EXPLANATION. What is the situation at Ukraine’s Chernobyl nuclear power plant?

Pentagon spokesman John Kirby also said that “less than 20%” Russian forces whose advance on kyiv was prevented by the Ukrainian resistance “began to reposition themselves” towards Belarus.“We don’t have an exact number, but it’s our preliminary estimate”added John Kirby, noting that none of the units seemed to leave the vicinity of Ukraine. “If the Russians were serious about de-escalation, because that’s what they claim, they would send them home. But that’s not what they do.”.

► Vladimir Putin would be badly advised according to the Americans

Advisors to Russian President Vladimir Putin“are afraid to tell him the truth” on his war strategy “failing” in Ukraine, the director of British intelligence said on Thursday.

“We have seen Russian soldiers – out of arms and in low spirits – refusing to carry out orders, sabotaging their own equipment and even accidentally shooting down their own aircraft”listed the director of the British intelligence agency GCHQ Jeremy Fleming. “And even if Putin’s advisers are afraid to tell him the truth, what is happening and the extent of these miscalculations should be crystal clear to the regime”he estimated.

→ INVESTIGATION. War in Ukraine: what the friends of Russia in France say

These remarks echo those of the American intelligence released by the White House the day before, indicating that the Russian president was ” misinformed “ by his advisers on the progress of the Russian operation.

► The UN accuses Russia of war crimes

The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, Michelle Bachelet, spoke on Wednesday “war crimes” committed in Ukraine in a long indictment of actions carried out mainly by the Russian army. She left no doubt that she believes Russia is the main culprit even though she has not fully cleared the Ukrainian forces.

“The massive destruction of civilian objects and the high number of civilian casualties strongly indicate that the fundamental principles of distinction (between military targets and civilians, Editor’s note)proportionality and precaution have not been sufficiently applied”did she say.

A little earlier, the UN Human Rights Council had appointed Erik Mose, a Norwegian judge who has sat on several international tribunals, to lead the investigation into the violations committed by Russia in Ukraine.

► Russian and Ukrainian GDP could fall sharply

Ukraine’s economy is expected to shrink by 20% this year due to Russia’s invasion of the country. Moscow will see its GDP plunge by 10%, according to forecasts from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) published Thursday.
Before the war, the EBRD anticipated growth of 3.5% in 2022 for Ukraine and 3% for Russia.