Not only the Ukrainian war but also climate change has severely affected wheat production and its quality in India this year. This raises the question of whether the wheat provided in the ration will no longer be rice. This has led to a dynamic environment in which chapati used in ordinary families is a rarity in the northern Indian states.
Oilseed production around the world has been affected and the price of cooking oil has risen sharply due to a shortage. Thus cooking oil is sold in rations to the people in many European countries with restrictions. Its impact is strongly echoed in India.
Prices of wheat and wheat products in India are also rising following cooking oil. March and April were the hottest months in northern India this year. Thus wheat yield is greatly affected. Wheat yields are reported to be about 5 percent lower. In Madhya Pradesh, this time the wheat yield has been reduced by 15-25 per cent.
Quality of wheat flour
It is said that India will be lucky if its wheat production exceeds 100 million tonnes this year. But the central government has set a target of harvesting 111 million tonnes of wheat this year. At present, it is estimated that less than 10 million tonnes will be harvested.
Not only this, last year we got about 770 grams of flour per kg of Indian wheat. This year, it is likely to drop to 720 grams. Grain production fell in March, the hottest month on record in 122 years.
In fact traders buy wheat and turn it into flour and then sell it. The quantity and quality available is very important when converting from normal wheat to flour. It is also below the international standard.
A low volume of less than 76 in the hectoliter test. Currently, industry sources say that Indian wheat is getting less than 72 per gram due to shortage of good wheat.
Ration purchase
India has harvested 110 million tonnes of wheat, of which the central government has set a target of exporting 15 million tonnes. If 15 million tonnes of wheat is exported to the rest of the world, India will face a severe shortage of wheat. Thus the Central Government has imposed restrictions on the export of wheat to India. This is likely to reduce exports. But Prime Minister Modi told US President Joe Biden that India would provide food to the rest of the world. But that promise may not be fulfilled this year.
About 10 million tonnes of wheat are to be exported under the government-government agreement with countries including Egypt. However it depends on the federal government negotiating.
Ukraine war
There are also global reasons for the rise in wheat prices. India’s demand for wheat in the world increased further in late February due to the Russia-Ukraine war. There has been a global shortage of wheat since the beginning of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in late February, following a decline in wheat exports from the Black Sea.
Due to the global demand for wheat, many countries buying wheat from Russia and Ukraine sought other countries. Russia and Ukraine account for thirty percent of global wheat exports. This created an environment where most of the wheat was exported from countries like India.
Wheat prices rise
India is the 2nd largest producer of wheat in the world. As a result, wheat exports from India have increased in the last two months. Due to this the demand for wheat in many parts of the country has increased and the price has continued to rise.
The Food Corporation of India, a central government procurement agency, procured 43 million metric tonnes of wheat last year. As on April 1 this year, the central government had a wheat reserve of 19 million tonnes. The central government has set a target of procuring only 19.-20 million tonnes of wheat this year as sufficient wheat was procured last year.
Corona period
But last year its stock dropped significantly. The federal government has been providing free wheat to the people during the corona epidemic for the last 2 years. Thus the wheat stock in the granaries of Indian restaurants has been significantly reduced.
Prime Minister Karib Anna Kalyan has extended the scheme till September 2022. This year’s wheat buying situation has occurred many years later compared to the amount of wheat left over from previous purchases.
But wheat is being exported in large quantities as there is a demand for it all over the world. Farmers have cut back on government purchases as private companies buy wheat at higher prices due to export opportunities. As a result, government reserves have dwindled.
In this context, procuring this year’s target of 19.5 million tonnes of wheat is likely to be a major challenge. Indian restaurants currently have 30 million tonnes of wheat in storage.
If the free grains scheme provided during the corona epidemic is further extended the stock will mostly go to public distribution. Wheat will be barred from going to the domestic open market. As a result, wheat prices in the open market are high and traders are at risk of hoarding. It is reported that traders in Delhi have already started hoarding wheat.
Rice is the answer to wheat?
The central government may take steps to curb hoarding and prevent wheat prices from rising in the open market. It can also reduce the amount of wheat that goes into the public distribution system.
In return more rice can be distributed through the subsidized public distribution system. Doing so may make chapati a rare item in ordinary families in northern India. Chapati is more important in North Indian cuisine than queen.
Global shortages will ease as Russia breaks the blockade on the Black Sea or negotiates the opening of a security route for wheat exports from Ukraine. Thus wheat shortage in India is likely to decrease.
But when the global temperature rises to 2 degrees Celsius or above, the Sabbath in India will be challenged.