This will be facilitated by a whole range of consequences of the pandemic.
The danger of an increase in infant mortality at the end of 2020 and subsequent years, associated with the COVID-19 pandemic, is predicted by Russian scientists. This was reported in the laboratory for the analysis of indicators of public health and digitalization of healthcare at the Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology (Tsifromed Phystech). The results of the work were published in the world’s leading scientific journal The Lancet.
As MIPT clarified, the threat to an increase in child mortality worldwide is not the coronavirus itself, but a whole range of consequences of the pandemic: a decrease in the quality and availability of medical care, the loss of guardians, a decrease in family incomes and a failure of the routine vaccination system for children.
Employees of Tsifromed Phystech were included in an international group of scientists that conducted a study of the dynamics of infant mortality from 0 to 5 years in 204 countries and territories from 2000 to 2019.
According to research, 5.05 million children under the age of 5 died in 2019, of which 2.42 million died during the first month of life (neonatal mortality).
At the global level, from 2000 to 2019, mortality among children under 5 years of age decreased by almost half from 71.2 to 37.1 per 1000 live births, and neonatal – from 28 to 17.9. Scientists predict that by 2030 75% of countries will be able to achieve the UN’s stated goal of reducing mortality under 5 years to less than 25 per 1000 live births and 68% of countries will reach the level of neonatal mortality (less than 12 per 1000 live births).
Help “MK”. As of 2019, most deaths of children under 5 years old were recorded in Africa, sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, least of all in Andorra, Singapore and Slovenia. In terms of newborn deaths, most were recorded in Pakistan, Mali and the Central African Republic, and least of all in Andorra, Japan and Singapore.
According to the head of the laboratory Stanislav Otstavnov, in Russia from 2000 to 2019, the absolute mortality of children under 5 years old decreased by 56%: in 2000, 25,500 deaths were recorded, in 2015 – 15,200, and in 2019 – 11,200 (which corresponds to 6.53 cases per 1000 live births). Neonatal mortality accounted for 12,400 deaths in 2000, 7,040 in 2015 and 4,990 in 2019, which is 60% lower than at the beginning of the period and corresponds to 3 deaths per 1,000 live births.
The data obtained, according to the scientist, make it possible to assess the progress of mankind, and Russian doctors in particular, to reduce mortality among children and infants. Using the same data, they predicted possible scenarios for changing this indicator until 2030.
So, based on the trends of the early 2000s, by 2030, the authors of the work predict for Russia a drop in mortality among newborns to 3 cases and to 5.04 cases per 1000 live births among children under five years of age. According to the researchers, this will be a decent result, comparable to that of other Eastern European countries.
True, scientists note that an unwanted amendment associated with COVID-19 may creep into their positive forecasts. The researchers noted that in the coming post-speck years, starting from 2020, there may be a danger of an increase in child mortality.
See also: “Scientists have named the future of COVID: will cause colds”
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