The climate crisis It was this: extreme heat, wave of fires and droughts. And with it, there are foods that are in danger. It is the case of the beerone of the drinks most popular in the world. Mexico, the world’s fourth largest exporter of this product, has stopped production in the breweries in the north of the country due to the lack of rain and the water restrictions. Prevail the crops and the household supply. Another of the foods most consumed and loved in the world could also have its years numbered. A drier climatelike the one predicted, will generate a shortage of chocolate.
The first news about the fall of the cocoa production date back to the end of 2014, when the multinational Barry Callembautthe largest producer in the world, published a worrying press release based on an analysis of market trends. “The world is running out of chocolate,” she assured with data in hand: she warned that by 2020 there would be a gap of one million tons between demand and the production capacity of the industry.
Cocoa only thrives in certain places
the future of cacao it’s a puzzle. Depends on variables like new production models and the increase in consumption in Asian countries. But, above all, obey the climatology. Cocoa trees only thrive under Specific conditionsincluding temperatures fairly uniform, high humidity, rain abundant, soil rich in nitrogen and protection against wind. In other words, cocoa trees thrive in the tropical forests or within 20 degrees north and south of the terrestrial equator.
Rising temperatures alone will not necessarily harm cocoa production. The cocoa growing areas in Malaysiafor example, already support a warmer climate than in West Africa without any obvious negative effect. The problem will come with the lack of humidity. Specifically, with the evapotranspiration.
critical date
“As higher temperatures squeeze more water out of the soil and plants, rainfall is unlikely to increase enough to offset moisture loss,” explains the Climate & Chocolate study, published by the National Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the scientific agency of the Department of Commerce of USA. In this sense, the experts date the chocolate crisis: from the 2050 cocoa production could drop drastically.
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With rising temperatures, cocoa will have to be grown at higher altitudes, something impossible due to the lack of oxygen and because they are protected areas. Other reports that already warn that the optimal altitude of Ivory Coast y Ghana (Africa) will rise from 100 to 250 meters and from 450 to 500 meters above sea level, respectively.
genetically modified cocoa
In order not to run out of chocolate, NOAA experts suggest two alternatives. On the one hand, the most viable solution is to develop genetically modified cocoa and thus provide seeds that have superior resistance to drought. On the other hand, a more traditional method: conserving, or in some cases replanting, other trees in the tropical forest, which provide shade for cocoa trees, as is the case in Brazil.