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NEW YORK, December 28, 2025 – Silver is stealing the show, and not in a quite way. Options volume on the iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:SLV) surged to a 52-week high last week, nearly doubling its next busiest trading day this year, signaling important investor positioning beneath the surface of a typically slow holiday market.
Precious Metals Volatility Signals Deeper Moves
Table of Contents
A spike in silver volatility suggests investors are bracing for perhaps significant price swings.
- precious metals volatility is spiking, hinting at substantial investor activity.
- The Materials sector is leading gains, but its strength is heavily reliant on metals.
- Sector performance reveals potential opportunities for 2026, with some areas lagging behind.
The gray metal’s implied volatility has jumped from a modest 23% in August to nearly 80% today. This dramatic increase suggests traders are betting on larger price movements, even as Wall Street generally drifts into its end-of-year lull.
Silver Now Outperforming the S&P 500 Total Return Index as the Start of 1997. Chart source: StockCharts.com.
Materials Sector Breaks Out,But it’s Not Broad-Based
Shifting focus from the precious metals rollercoaster,the Materials sector has emerged as a relative luminous spot. The sector, tracked by the Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLB), hit a new year-to-date high last week, rising 19.2% so far in 2025 (including dividends). XLB began to decouple from the broader SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (NYSE:SPY) in August and September, coinciding with the ascent of gold and silver.
A deeper dive into the sector reveals that metals stocks are driving the gains. Newmont (NYSE:NEM) has been a standout performer, up 83% in the last six months. Agnico Eagle (NYSE:AEM), Barrick Mining (NYSE:GOLD), and Kinross Gold (NYSE:KGC) have also posted notable gains throughout the second half of the year, despite a brief correction in October and early November.
Materials Sector MarketCarpet Last 6 Months. Metals & Mining stocks strong, chemicals mixed. Chart source: StockCharts.com.
Not A Magnificent Seven, But A New Group of Leaders?
Index Weightings. Facts Technology XLK Best of the 11 S&P 500 Sector ETFs YTD, SPY Nears a 20% Total Return in 2025. Image source: StockCharts.com.
The Takeaway
The current market habitat – low volume, low volatility, and small daily moves – is typical of the Santa Claus Rally period. For market enthusiasts, this is an ideal time to step back and assess the broader price action landscape.
While technology and artificial intelligence have dominated as mid-April,a new “Magnificent Seven” could emerge,comprised of gold,silver,platinum,copper,palladium,live cattle,and feeder cattle. The Materials sector is complex,and I anticipate Wall Street’s attention will likely shift back to AI and consumer
