2024-03-29 22:31:53
Russian invasion forces have occupied an estimated 505 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory since the start of their offensive operations last October, the US Institute for the Study of War (ISW) wrote in its analysis of the fighting. This is approximately the area of Prague, which covers approximately 496 square kilometers.
At the same time, the institute’s analysts point out that although the Ukrainian military is now managing to prevent the Russians from achieving significant tactical successes along the front line, the continued delay in US military aid is likely to increase the threat of Russian operational success in the future.
Ukrainian armed forces slowed the pace of the Russian advance west of the eastern Ukrainian city of Avdijivka after the Russians captured it in mid-February, and the invading army made only marginal tactical gains in other parts of Ukraine, according to ISW.
In a recent interview on CBS News, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi spoke about the ammunition shortage, saying that while the Ukrainian military has stabilized the situation, it is not ready to defend against another major Russian offensive, which he said is expected in May or June.
Russian forces are likely to continue to maintain the pace of offensive operations regardless of more difficult terrain conditions to take advantage of the Ukrainians’ material shortages before the arrival of expected limited Western aid, ISW writes. He is apparently referring to a phenomenon known as “rut,” where the land in the Ukrainian and Russian plains turns into muddy and swampy terrain in the spring and fall, which restricts the movement of equipment.
ISW also estimates that the Russians have occupied 505 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory since the start of their offensive in October last year. “From January 1 to March 28, 2024, Russian forces gained almost 100 square kilometers more territory than in the last three months of 2023,” the institute said, citing a slight increase in the pace of Russian forces’ advance.
“Opportunities to exploit Ukraine’s weaknesses will expand as material shortages persist and as Ukraine continues to grapple with how to address human resource issues,” ISW warns. Sufficient and regular Western security assistance and a resolution of Ukraine’s human resource difficulties would give Kiev the ability to prevent an invading army from making even marginal gains and the chance to prepare for its own counteroffensive. Ukraine is currently figuring out how to mobilize more troops.
Another important military aid from the United States to Ukraine is blocked by the Republican leadership of the House of Representatives. Last year, the European Union promised to supply Ukraine with a million pieces of artillery ammunition by March, but the head of EU diplomacy, Josep Borrell, recently said that he expected the Union to reach about 52 percent of its goal by March.
Meanwhile, about 20 countries have joined the so-called Czech initiative, the aim of which is to supply Ukraine with hundreds of thousands of pieces of artillery ammunition purchased in countries outside the EU. According to sources in the Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera, the first deliveries should take place in April.
Video: Ukrainians are losing this war, warns Polish general (March 21, 2024)
“Ukrainians are losing this war. They have no resources and no one to fight with,” the Polish general claims in the interview. | Video: Reuters