A week ago, the anger that had been simmering for months against the strict “zero Covid” policy erupted in China, with demonstrations in a dozen cities, on a scale not seen since the pro-democracy mobilizations of Tiananmen in 1989. Following the protests, authorities quickly quashed the movement with a heavy police presence and increased social media surveillance, but sporadic protests occur here and there.
Emmanuel Véron, associate teacher-researcher at Inalco, geographer, specialist in contemporary China and co-author of the book China facing the world: an irresistible power in September 2021 believes that “there is a real rejection of the Chinese model of society among young people”.
It is rare to see Chinese public opinion growling. Do the protests represent a major event for China?
It is indeed a major event, generalized, without being totally structured from one province to another and which testifies to a fed up and saturation of all regions and Chinese generations. There is a shift towards politics, which is unprecedented since 1989 and the bloody repression of demonstrations in Tiananmen Square. There are demonstrations for more transparency, especially among young people, and protesters who shout “Xi Jinping resign” or “Chinese Communist Party resign”. These political demands and the fact that they take place in the public space is new: before, the demands were concentrated on the Chinese web, not in the street. It is extremely difficult to organize rallies in China. The local police probably underestimated the movement and were overwhelmed by its magnitude.
How important was the “zero covid” policy in the decision of the Chinese to take to the streets?
China’s “zero covid” policy is key to understanding people’s frustration. The regime has implemented three years of disparate measures: re-containments, permanent PCR tests. People are exhausted. There is reason to worry about the mental balance of the Chinese population. Researchers are beginning to talk about post-traumatic syndrome in the United States and the same interpretation can be applied to China. Some people have had to combine the loss of a loved one with extremely harsh containment measures. In Shanghai, there were probably more deaths by suicide than by Covid-19 during the first confinement [qui a duré deux mois et n’autorisait aucune sortie].
In Shanghai, there were probably more deaths by suicide than by Covid-19 during the first confinement”
The regime’s Covid-19 restrictions lead to abuse and surreal situations. Much has been said about the building fire in Urumqi, Xinjiang [où les autorités sont soupçonnées d’avoir empêché les secours d’intervenir plus rapidement et dix personnes sont mortes], but it echoes almost daily events. If you go to the hospital, you are not accepted without a PCR test and if you are positive, you are sent to quarantine. And this, regardless of the reason for your visit. An eight-month-pregnant woman lost her child after the maternity ward refused to receive her, her Covid test having expired.
Are the demonstrators also seeking to denounce the lack of freedom of expression?
Censorship is rampant in China, and people use a form of coded language to express their ideas. A4 sheets have become a political symbol as if to substitute a white sheet for a QR code. Some students wrote an equation by mathematician Michael Freedman on blank sheets to play with the name Freedman “Free the man”. It’s quite telling: they can’t write the word “freedom”. Most of the demonstrators identified in the public space thanks to the mass surveillance system saw themselves arrested and had to delete all the images they had made of the rallies. Whole sections of the Chinese language are censored on the Internet. Sometimes even numbers, like the date “June 4” which refers to the Tiananmen Square massacre.
Is Chinese youth at the origin of this democratic surge?
There is a particular role of youth. Campuses are a favorable space for this type of claim and spontaneous organization, especially since anger has been simmering for a long time. But this anger is shared: in the demonstrations, there are not only young people, but also mothers, for example, who demand to see their children who are in quarantine detention centers. Young people handle digital tools much better, especially VPNs to circumvent censorship and use coded language much more. Thus, in the early days of the protest, some Internet users spoke of Chinese cooking recipes from a province to evoke geographical areas and related demonstrations.
Chinese incomes remain at 40% of GDP against 60 to 70% in developed countries. Has precariousness, particularly among young people, played a role?
The Chinese economy is really sluggish. However, until now, the power contained the contestation thanks to a flourishing economy. The social pact was: “no democracy, but you have enough to own and fit into society”. But it is becoming impossible. This is a particularly sensitive subject for young people. They have an unemployment rate between 20 and 25% and again, these are the official figures of the Chinese regime! 2.5 million Chinese SMEs have gone out of business due to the pandemic. Part of the youth is struggling to find a job, to situate themselves in society and develops mental disorders linked to Covid and confinement.
So is the Chinese model of a very hard-working society collapsing?
The image of the Chinese worker conveyed in the West is almost a stereotype, but it is maintained by the Chinese regime. The social reality is quite different. The Chinese population is tired, under pressure, in forms of depression that do not say their name.
There is a real rejection of the Chinese model of society among the youth”
The “Tang ping” movement, which brings together young people who no longer want to work, is very evocative of all this. The literal translation is quite evocative: it is “to lie flat, to lie down”. There is a real rejection of the Chinese model of society among young people, it’s a real fundamental movement. The demonstrations were a form of awakening will that was immediately neutralized, which will certainly strengthen the “Tang ping” movement.
Can we imagine a change of society in China?
At this stage, a change of society is not at all possible. The movements have been neutralized, the response from the central authority is still there and effective. But the protest will be more and more visible and regular over time due to political hype and economic difficulties. We can expect fundamental movements over the next ten years. But a democratization of China tomorrow or the day after tomorrow morning is unthinkable. It is a very slow, sophisticated process and must come from elites who are muzzled or outside of China. They are either murdered, exiled or imprisoned. The mass surveillance system is very effective. But there are a billion people in China all the same, even if the regime is organized, Chinese society today is a kind of pressure cooker that can overflow with nothing.