SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) shares reached an all-time low of $107 on August 3, according to coingape.com. The decline follows a 32% drop in stock price since July 2, 2026, occurring just one day before the company is scheduled to report its second-quarter earnings on August 4.
Upcoming Share Unlock and Market Pressure
Market analysts attribute the price drop in part to the upcoming expiry of the post-IPO lock-up period on August 6. This event will make 911.5 million shares available for sale by early investors and company insiders who have been unable to sell since the June 12 IPO. According to analyst Walter, this unlock will increase selling pressure, as the number of outstanding shares is projected to rise from 5% in June 2026 to 40% by December 2026.
The potential for a massive sell-off has led short sellers to realize more than $20 billion in unrealized profits, making SPCX the most shorted stock in the world. Conversely, analyst Johnston suggests that short sellers may close their positions once the unlock occurs, which could create buy-side pressure.
Financial Outlook and Q2 Expectations
Investors are awaiting the company’s first earnings report since its $86 billion IPO to determine if profits from Starlink can sustain spending on AI and space ventures. A Bloomberg consensus forecasts Q2 2026 revenue of $6.87 billion, an increase from $4.7 billion in Q1 2026. Other analysts expect connectivity revenue from Starlink to reach $3.82 billion with an operating profit of $1.42 billion for the quarter ended June 30, according to Reuters.
The company’s valuation, which is 77 times expected revenue, has come under scrutiny. While Starlink is cash-generative, it has faced pricing pressure; average revenue per subscriber fell from $99 per month in 2023 to $66 per month in the first quarter of 2026. As of March 2026, Starlink served roughly 10.3 million subscribers across 164 countries.
AI Spending and the xAI Acquisition
SpaceX is increasingly viewed as an AI stock due to its xAI division, which the company acquired in February 2026. This acquisition contributed to a combined GAAP net loss of $4.9 billion for full-year 2025 and a net loss of $4.28 billion in the first quarter of 2026. xAI posted an operating loss of $6.36 billion in 2025 and burned an estimated $2.5 billion in Q1 2026 alone.
Capital expenditures in the AI segment are surging. Spending in this area reached $7.72 billion in the January-March quarter, and analysts expect it to hit $10.2 billion in the April-June quarter—a more than six-fold increase from the same period last year. Total capital expenses for the April-June quarter are expected to be nearly $14.05 billion. Will Rhind, CEO of GraniteShares, stated that while Starlink is executing beautifully
, it cannot alone fund a $30 billion annualized AI capex program.
Starship and Long-Term Strategy
The Starship launch vehicle remains a critical asset for the company’s long-term vision, including NASA moon landings by 2028 and the deployment of orbital AI-processing satellites. Starship is the only vehicle capable of deploying Starlink V3 satellites, which are too large for the Falcon 9 payload fairing.
Despite its importance, Morningstar does not expect commercially viable orbital data centers or rapid Starship reusability to be operational before 2028 at the earliest. On July 16, Starship conducted its 13th test flight, carrying 20 operational Starlink V3 satellites for the first time.
Summary of Key Financial Metrics
| Metric | Value / Detail |
|---|---|
| IPO Date | June 12, 2026 |
| IPO Valuation | $86 Billion |
| All-Time Low Price | $107 (August 3, 2026) |
| August 6 Share Unlock | 911.5 Million Shares |
| Expected Q2 Revenue | $6.87 Billion (Bloomberg Consensus) |
Worth a look
