Pittsburgh Steelers fans have a familiar feeling: another wild card game, and the hope of finally breaking through in the playoffs. The team is set to host the Houston Texans on Monday, January 12, with a chance to advance for the first time in five postseason appearances.
The stakes are high, with both teams protecting impressive streaks. Houston arrives at Acrisure Stadium riding a nine-game winning streak, while the Steelers boast a remarkable 23-game winning streak on Monday Night Football, a tradition dating back to 1991 and the Chuck Noll era. Head coach Mike Tomlin has maintained a perfect 10-0 record when playing in Pittsburgh, and an overall 20-3 record on Monday nights.
The Texans’ highly-ranked defense—currently number one in the league overall—has garnered much attention, allowing just 277 passing yards per game and holding opposing rushers to 93.7 yards. However, the Steelers are entering this game with momentum, particularly after a strong second half of the season and improvements to their rushing defense.
A significant boost for Pittsburgh is the return of DK Metcalf after a two-game suspension. His absence was felt, potentially costing the Steelers a win against the Cleveland Browns and impacting their playoff seeding. Aaron Rodgers expressed the team’s desire to secure a playoff victory for Tomlin, acknowledging his past first-round struggles.
When the Texans Have the Ball
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Both teams field strong defenses, with Houston statistically edging out Pittsburgh overall. However, the Steelers have demonstrably improved their run defense in recent weeks. The Texans’ offense, led by running back Woody Marks (297 yards shy of 1,000 for the season with a 3.6-yard per carry average), doesn’t pose the same threat as their defensive unit.
Quarterback C.J. Stroud has thrown for 3,041 yards with only six interceptions, completing passes to favorite target Nico Collins (71 catches for 1,117 yards and six touchdowns). Despite Stroud’s efficiency, the Steelers’ improved run-stopping ability suggests Houston will face a difficult time moving the ball consistently.
When the Steelers Have the Ball
The Steelers’ offensive execution against the league’s top-ranked defense will likely determine the game’s outcome. The Texans’ Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter have combined for 29.5 sacks this season, posing a significant challenge to the Steelers’ offensive line. Pittsburgh’s advantage lies in Aaron Rodgers’ quick release, allowing for effective RPO plays to counter potential blitzes. Expect Rodgers to also look deep, especially with Metcalf back in the lineup, and utilize the dynamic duo of Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell.
Intangibles
The Steelers benefit from home-field advantage and their storied Monday Night Football record. Pittsburgh holds the second-best all-time MNF record (58-31-1), trailing only the Seattle Seahawks. Tomlin’s undefeated streak on Monday nights—10 straight wins in Pittsburgh—adds another layer of confidence. The atmosphere at Acrisure Stadium is expected to be electric, fueled by a fanbase hungry for playoff success.
The Texans carry the weight of history, representing a city that lost its original NFL team, the Oilers, to Tennessee in 1997. Houston didn’t gain another franchise until 2002, and it took six seasons to achieve a winning record (8-8 in 2007). The Texans first reached the playoffs in 2011, but have never advanced past the divisional round, making seven postseason appearances since.
Historically, the Steelers have dominated the series against the Texans, winning five of eight matchups. Pittsburgh won three consecutive games between 2014 and 2020 (30-23, 34-6, and 28-21), though Houston delivered a decisive 30-6 victory in their most recent meeting in 2023. The Texans also won the first-ever matchup in 2002, 24-6, in Pittsburgh.
Both Tomlin and Rodgers bring significant playoff experience to the table, with Tomlin reaching the Super Bowl twice (winning once) and Rodgers winning a Super Bowl with the Green Bay Packers. That experience could prove invaluable.
Bill Cowher recently noted Tomlin’s penchant for thriving as an underdog. Despite being the home team, the Steelers opened as a three-point underdog. The Steelers’ defense, in particular, appears to be underestimated.
ESPN experts are largely predicting a Texans victory, with score predictions ranging from 23-20 (Pam Maldonado) to 24-13 (Ben Solak), including 19-16 (Seth Walder) and 21-17 (Eric Moody).
However, the Steelers are averaging 23 points per game, and 27.3 points in wins, while surrendering only 19.3. In losses, they averaged 17.7 points while allowing 27.7.
