Stocks Rise: Fed Easing Expectations Fuel Gains

ingapore’s Straits Times Index added 0.6%, poised to close higher for a fourth straight session. In contrast, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index underperformed, slipping -0.4%.

Did you know?-The Nikkei 225, a leading index of Japanese stocks, is calculated and maintained by the Nihon Keizai Shimbun (Nikkei), one of Japan’s largest media corporations. It is price-weighted, meaning higher-priced stocks have a greater influence on the index.

Labor Market Weakness Fuels Rate Cut Expectations

The latest US initial jobless claims rose to 1.974 million for the week ending june 14, the highest level as November 2021. The data suggests that more individuals are staying unemployed for longer periods,reinforcing the view of a weakening labor market.

This softening could push the Fed to abandon it’s current “wait and see” approach-emphasized by Fed Chair Jerome Powell during his testimony to Congress this week-and potentially bring forward interest rate cuts. According to CME FedWatch data, markets are now pricing in three 25-bps rate cuts by December 2025, up from two rate cuts forecast last week, aligning with the Fed’s latest dot plot.

Reader question:-How do you think the Federal Reserve should balance the risks of inflation versus economic slowdown when deciding on interest rate policy?

US Dollar Slides as Fed Policy Outlook Shifts

Dovish Fed repricing has weighed heavily on the US Dollar Index (DXY). The DXY posted a fourth consecutive daily loss on Thursday, falling -0.4% to 97.35, its lowest level in three years, and breaching a critical support at 97.40. A sustained weekly close below this level could confirm a multi-week to multi-month downtrend.

The Euro and British Pound extended their rallies to fresh multi-year highs. Meanwhile, the Swiss Franc surged to a decade high against the US dollar, with USD/CHF breaking below the April 21 low of 0.8040 to hit an intraday low of 0.7979, its weakest level as the 2015 removal of the Swiss National Bank’s floor.

Japanese Yen Remains Resilient Despite Economic Data

Despite softer-than-expected data out of Japan, including Tokyo’s core CPI for June (3.1% y/y vs.3.3% consensus) and retail sales (2.2% y/y vs. 2.7% expected), the Japanese Yen held steady. USD/JPY reversed earlier intraday gains to trade flat at 144.43 ahead of the closely watched US PCE inflation data due later in the US session.

Gold Prices Retreat amid Risk Appetite

The resurgence in risk appetite has weighed on gold prices. Gold broke below its US$3,300 intermediate support and the 50-day moving average, registering a -1% intraday loss. The precious metal is now trading at a four-week low of US$3,295, reflecting diminished short-term safe-haven demand.

Economic Data Releases

Fig 1: Key data for today’s Asia mid-session (Source: MarketPulse)

Chart of the Day – Potential Bearish Breakdown of USD/JPY

Price actions of the USD/JPY have failed to trade higher above its 20-day moving average, and it is indeed now shaping an impending weekly bearish “Dark Cloud Cover” candlestick pattern that suggests a potential bearish breakdown from its “Ascending Wedge” range support that has been in place as the April 22, 2025 low.

In addition, the hourly RSI momentum indicator has continued to flash out bearish momentum conditions as it remains below a parallel descending resistance.

Watch the 145.20 key short-term pivotal resistance, and a break below 143.90 (“Ascending Wedge” range support) exposes the next intermediate supports at 143.00 and 142.40 (see Fig 2).

On the other hand, a clearance above 145.20 negates the bearish tone for a squeeze up towards the next intermediate resistances at 146.25 and 147.15.

Fig 2: USD/JPY minor trend as of June 27, 2025 (Source: TradingView)

The confluence of weakening US economic data and shifting expectations for Federal Reserve policy is creating a dynamic habitat for global markets, with further volatility likely as investors digest incoming data and reassess their positions.

Global Economic Transformations: the Role of Cybersecurity in 2025

The year 2025 presents a complex landscape of economic shifts adn mounting pressures. The weakening US economic data, the evolving Federal Reserve policy, and the uncertain global market trends highlighted in recent analyses, such as the USD/JPY’s bearish signals, are just part of the picture. A critical factor shaping this environment is the growing influence of cybersecurity, an area poised for critically important change [[3]].

Cybersecurity’s Role will be pivotal in navigating the emerging economic challenges.With the rise of misinformation, climate-related threats, and a fragmented global order, cybersecurity is no longer just an IT concern; it has evolved too become a core economic and geopolitical imperative. According to the World Economic Forum’s Global Cybersecurity Outlook 2025, key trends will substantially impact economies and societies [[3]].

• Economic Resilience: cybersecurity directly supports the stability of financial systems,supply chains,and critical infrastructure,areas vulnerable to cyberattacks.
• Geopolitical influence: Nations will compete to develop and deploy advanced cybersecurity capabilities, influencing global power dynamics.
• Market Dynamics: cybersecurity will drive innovation and investment in new technologies, creating new markets and business models.

What is at Stake?

The stakes are incredibly high.Cyberattacks can inflict immediate economic damage, disrupting operations and destroying value. Over time, they can erode trust in digital systems, impacting consumer behavior and international relations [[3]]. The shift towards a multipolar world, as suggested by the world Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report 2024 [[2]], will bring new complexities to cybersecurity. Different nations will have varying cybersecurity priorities and approaches, potentially leading to fragmentation and increased risks.

What can be done?

Addressing the intertwined nature of cybersecurity and economics requires a proactive approach. Companies,governments,and individuals must collaborate. Here’s a helpful checklist:

• Invest in robust cybersecurity infrastructure and practices.
• Promote international cooperation on cybersecurity standards and details sharing.
• Educate the workforce and the public about cybersecurity risks and mitigation strategies.
• Adapt to the evolving threat environment by continuously updating capabilities and strategies.

In the face of escalating global risks, cybersecurity serves as an essential shield, safeguarding economic stability and societal function. Robust cybersecurity measures are no longer optional; they are a critical investment in a secure and prosperous future.

How will these changes impact you?

The consequences of neglecting cybersecurity can be severe. From financial markets to individual privacy, the future economy requires a strong cybersecurity foundation. The integration of cybersecurity into economic strategy will be crucial for mitigating risks and seizing opportunities.

The convergence of these factors means that the role of cybersecurity is poised for exponential growth and diversification. Recognizing these evolving threats and investing in robust defenses will be essential for all stakeholders to thrive.