The Strait of Hormuz has been blocked for nearly two months, cutting off a critical flow of oil and pushing jet fuel prices to roughly double their pre-conflict levels.
The disruption stems from the ongoing conflict between Iran and the United States, which has led to mutual blockades on Iranian ports in and around the Strait of Hormuz. This waterway normally carries about 20% of the world’s oil supply and between 25% and 30% of global jet fuel, which is refined from crude oil.
According to Stephen Rooney, lead economist at Tourism Economics, the United States is somewhat insulated from immediate shortages because it produces a significant portion of its jet fuel domestically. However, European and Asian airlines are more exposed, as they rely heavily on imported fuel.
The International Energy Agency warned that Europe may have as little as six weeks’ worth of jet fuel remaining, raising concerns about potential shortages as the peak summer travel season approaches. Rooney noted that although a full crisis has not yet arrived, the timeline is tight: “Six weeks is a long time, so hopefully something can be resolved. We’ve still got time to get jet fuel flowing again.”
Despite the tightening supply, Rooney emphasized that the U.S. Is unlikely to face physical fuel shortages in the near term. Instead, low global inventories elsewhere are expected to exert significant upward pressure on jet fuel prices for American carriers, which could then be passed on to consumers.
In response to rising costs, airlines have already begun taking steps to mitigate financial impacts. These include increasing ticket prices, adding fuel surcharges, raising baggage fees, and reducing flight capacity. While flight cuts have been modest so far, they could intensify as demand peaks during the summer months.
For more on this story, see Stocks Rally on US-Iran Deal Hopes Amid Strait of Hormuz Blockade.
Travel experts warn that disruptions may disproportionately affect international travel. Katy Nastro, a travel expert at the deal website Going, described the situation using a stark analogy: “It’s almost like they’re on a timer. It’s like the SATs: Once the timer is done, it’s over, and they can’t fly anymore.”
How airlines are responding to rising fuel costs
Carriers are implementing a range of measures to offset higher fuel expenses, which represent one of their largest operating costs. These include raising base fares, introducing or increasing fuel surcharges, charging more for checked bags, and scaling back flight schedules. While these actions help preserve margins, they also risk shifting costs onto travelers and reducing availability during peak demand.
Why the U.S. May avoid shortages but still face higher prices
Domestic refining capacity gives the United States a buffer against immediate supply disruptions, unlike Europe and Asia, which depend more on imports. However, because jet fuel is a globally traded commodity, reduced availability abroad drives up benchmark prices, which U.S. Airlines must pay regardless of their domestic supply advantages.
What should travelers do to prepare for possible disruptions?
Travel experts recommend booking flights early, monitoring airline advisories, considering travel insurance that covers schedule changes, and being ready to adjust plans if flights are canceled or rerouted. Flexibility in travel dates and destinations can also help avoid the worst impacts.
How long could the current situation last?
Based on the International Energy Agency’s assessment, Europe’s jet fuel reserves may last about six weeks if no new supplies arrive. However, the duration depends on whether diplomatic or military developments allow the Strait of Hormuz to reopen, which remains uncertain.
