2024-03-26 12:34:50
A flash survey conducted by the Viterbi Center for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy at the Israel Democracy Institute regarding the “Iron Swords” war, shows that 42% of those surveyed gave a good or moderate grade to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s performance since October 7. Chief of Staff Hertzi Halevi receives sympathetic attention from the public, while Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich is at the bottom of the list of office bearers who received marks from those surveyed.
The data collection for the survey was done on March 18-21, 2024. The sample included 578 interviewees in the Hebrew language and 159 interviewees in the Arabic language. The fieldwork was carried out by the “Lazar Research Institute”. The survey was conducted by Prof. Tamar Herman, Dr. Lior Yohanni and Yaron Kaplan.
The main topics examined in the survey were the evaluation of the performance of various office bearers since October 7; the management of war; the prospect of an all-out war in the north; The suffering of the Palestinian population as a factor in planning the continuation of fighting in Gaza; Israel-US relations; responding to US demands regarding the continuation of the fighting in Gaza; The American intelligence assessment of the internal situation in Israel, and the effect of the establishment of the sea dock in Gaza on Israel’s bargaining position with Hamas.
According to what emerges from the survey, the majority of the general public gave a good or average grade to the Chief of Staff’s performance – 67%, Defense Minister Yoav Galant – 65% and Minister Benny Gantz – 61%.
A minority of the general public gave a good or average score to Netanyahu’s performance in the war – 42%, and less than that to the performance in the war of the Minister of Internal Security Itamar Ben Gabir – 37% and the Minister of Finance Bezalel Smotrich – 33%.
On the issue of Israel-US relations, acting in coordination with the Americans or according to Israel’s considerations: 49% of the Jewish public believe that Israel should act only according to the judgment of its leaders, and 43% believe that it should act in coordination with the Americans.
Among the Arab public, a large majority (63%) believe that it is necessary to act in coordination with the Americans and only 18% believe that Israel should act only according to the discretion of its leaders.
On the issue of the northern front: the majority of the general public (69%) believe that the chances are high that a war between Israel and Hezbollah will develop in the north in the near future.
Halevi is on top, Smotrich is on the bottom
To the question “What grade would you give to each of the officials for their performance in the war since October 7”, in the entire sample, Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi received the highest score and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich received the lowest score.
The segmentation of the data by nationality – Jews and Arabs – brings up estimates that are far from each other: in the Jewish sample, Chief of Staff Halevi and Defense Minister Galant are at the top. its function. They are followed by Minister Benny Gantz with 37.5%. In fourth place are Prime Minister Netanyahu and Minister Ben Gabir with about 32% who evaluate positively the performance of each of them, and at the bottom – Minister Smotritz with 21.5% who evaluate his performance as such.
As for the prime minister, this is a slight increase compared to the mid-October measurements, when he received 24.5% in the Jewish sample, and in November, when the rate of those evaluating his performance positively was 26.5%. The percentage of those who positively evaluate Minister Galant’s performance is also on the rise compared to the October measurement, when only 40.5% rated his performance as excellent or good.
In the Arab sample, the rates of those who positively evaluate the performance of all six officials since the beginning of the war is much lower than among the Jews, but the ranking is similar: Gantz and Levi lead with about 15% who positively evaluate their performance, Gallant – 10%, Netanyahu – 5%, And at the bottom Ben Gabir – 3% and Smotritz – 1%.
In the question that asked the respondents to rank each of the officials on a scale of 1-5 for their performance in the war since October 7, a segmentation was carried out according to political camps (among Jewish respondents) which shows that on the left, center and right at the top of the scale of excellence is Chief of Staff Halevi, and at the bottom – the Minister of Finance Smotrich, however the rate of giving each of the six officials positive marks differs from camp to camp.
The percentage of those who rate the performance of all the officials referred to in the survey as excellent or good is much higher in the right-wing camp than in the center and left-wing camps, with the exception of the Chief of Staff and Minister Gantz, who received a higher evaluation in the latter two camps than in the right-wing camp.
Most of those polled: a front will open in the north as well
On the topic of the northern front – the respondents were asked their assessment of the chances that an all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah will develop in the north in the near future. The survey found a majority among the entire sample (69%), the Jews (71%) and the Arabs (62%), who estimate that the chances of this are high.
Segmentation according to political camps (among Jewish respondents) shows a majority in all three, with small differences, who believe that we are on the brink of an all-out war in the north between Israel and Hezbollah: Left – 62%, Center – 66%, Right – 74%.
On the issue of taking into account the suffering of the Palestinian population in the planning of the war – those surveyed were again asked the question that was also presented in the months of October and December 2023: To what extent should the suffering of the Palestinian population in Gaza affect the planning of Israel’s continued fighting there. The findings indicate that despite the progress of the campaign in Gaza and the harsh international criticism of Israel regarding the vulnerability of the Palestinian population, a very large majority of the Israeli-Jewish public still believes that Israel should not take into account the suffering of the Palestinian citizens when planning the campaign. On the other hand, among the Israeli-Arab public, a similar majority believes the opposite – that this suffering should be taken into account.
The segmentation of the sample of Jews according to political camps shows that the left is divided (47% – the suffering of the Palestinian citizens in Gaza should not be taken into account or to a small extent, 50% – it should be taken into account to a fairly large extent or to a very large extent). On the other hand, in the center and on the right, the Cape is inclined to the opinion that the suffering of the Palestinian population should not be taken into account or taken into account only to a small extent when planning the campaign (center – to a small extent or not at all – 71%, right – 90%).
42% of those surveyed lack confidence in Netanyahu’s ability to rule
As for Israel-US relations, those surveyed were asked whether Israel should act in coordination with the Americans or only according to the considerations of the leadership in Israel.
As in the past, the highest proportion of the Jewish public believes that Israel should only act according to the discretion of its leaders, and a lower proportion believes that activities should be coordinated with the Americans. Among the Arabs the picture is the opposite, and a clear majority support coordination with the Americans.
It should be noted that the proportion of those who chose the answer “don’t know” to this question among the Arab interviewees is much higher than among the Jews.
The segmentation of the answers (among Jewish respondents) to this question according to political camps indicates a majority on the left and center (respectively 82.5% and 64.5%) favoring coordination with the Americans, compared to a majority on the right (64%) who believe that Israel should only act according to the discretion of its leadership.
On the issue of the American intelligence report regarding Israel’s internal situation, the respondents were asked: “Recently, an American intelligence report was published that stated that the Israeli public’s lack of confidence in Netanyahu’s ability to rule deepened and expanded during the months of the war, and that large demonstrations should be expected that would demand his resignation and the holding of new elections To what extent do you agree with these assessments?”.
The survey shows that the highest rate (the entire sample) agrees with both estimates of American intelligence (42%). The second highest rate is of those who do not agree with both of these assessments (28%). The proportion of those in the entire sample who agree only with the assessment regarding the increase in distrust in Netanyahu’s ability to rule is double the proportion who agree only with the assessment regarding the expectation of large demonstrations (respectively 16% and 8%).
Both among the Jews and among the Arabs the highest proportion agree with both assessments (respectively 42% and 41%), but among the Jews only 14% agree with the first assessment alone, meaning that confidence in Netanyahu’s ability to rule has eroded compared to 25% who believe so among the Arabs.
The proportions of those who only agree with the American intelligence’s expectation of large demonstrations also differ in the two communities (6.5% among the Jews compared to 16.5% among the Arabs). The rate of those who disagree with both assessments among the Jews reaches 31% and only 12% among the Arabs.
The segmentation according to political camps (Jews) shows that on the left and center there is a large majority who agree with both assessments (respectively 86% and 67%), while on the right the highest proportion disagree with both – 44% and only 25% agree with them.
The effect of the establishment of the American naval dock in Gaza
Those surveyed were asked how the establishment of the American naval dock would affect Israel’s bargaining position with Hamas. In the Jewish sample, a clear majority (60%) estimated that the move would weaken Israel’s bargaining position, since it would improve the situation in the Strip and there would be no internal pressure on Hamas to comply with Israel’s demands.
Only 23% estimated that he would strengthen Israel’s bargaining position, that the introduction of international aid would reduce the external pressure on Israel and it would be able to meet its demands against Hamas. Among the Arab interviewees, on the other hand, the tendency is the opposite, but the gap between the two positions is much smaller: 43% believe that the move will strengthen Israel in negotiations with Hamas, while 39% answered that it will weaken it.
The segmentation of positions on this question according to political camps (Jews) shows that only on the left is the proportion of those who believe that the establishment of the American naval dock to allow the introduction of humanitarian aid will strengthen Israel vis-a-vis Hamas, compared to a majority in the center and on the right who believe that this American move will weaken Israel’s bargaining power vis-a-vis Hamas. In this question, the proportion of those who chose the answer “don’t know” was unusually high.
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