Sydney motorists are increasingly abandoning their cars or reducing their trips as a global surge in fuel prices, triggered by conflict in the Middle East, hits the pump. New data reveals a significant drop in traffic across the city’s busiest arterial roads, suggesting a shift in commuting habits as residents scramble to cope with record-breaking costs.
The financial pressure has been sharp and sudden. According to the NSW government’s FuelCheck website, the average cost of unleaded or E10 petrol spiked from a monthly average of $1.68 in February to $2.20 in April. The impact on diesel users has been even more severe, with prices soaring from approximately $1.83 in February to $3.01 in April.
This fuel crisis has seen less motorists on Sydney roads, with the most pronounced declines appearing in the second week of March. This timeline aligns with the moment it became evident to the public that fuel prices were likely to remain elevated for the foreseeable future.
Data shows a drop in motorists travelling on NSW’s busiest roads. (ABC News: Greg Bigelow)
The decline of the daily commute
The shift in behavior is most visible on Sydney’s primary transit corridors. Data from Transport for NSW indicates that weekday car trips on the Sydney Harbour Bridge have fallen by approximately 6 per cent since the beginning of March. Specifically, traffic on the bridge dropped from 143,510 weekday trips at the start of the conflict to 134,835 by the end of March.
Other major roads have seen similar declines. The City West Link experienced a 7 per cent drop in trips, while both Epping Road and Parramatta Road saw decreases of about 5 per cent. On Epping Road, weekday trips fell from 71,557 in the first week of March to 68,433 by the end of the month.
However, this trend is not uniform across all road types. Data from private motorway operator Transurban suggests that those who rely on major toll roads—including the M2, M5 West, and Westconnex—have not drastically altered their habits. Average daily traffic growth in the March quarter for these routes remained relatively stable, increasing by only 0.6 per cent.
| Location/Road | Change in Weekday Trips | Start of March | End of March |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney Harbour Bridge | ~6% Decrease | 143,510 | 134,835 |
| City West Link | ~7% Decrease | N/A | N/A |
| Epping Road | ~5% Decrease | 71,557 | 68,433 |
| Parramatta Road | ~5% Decrease | N/A | N/A |
A shift toward public and active transport
As the cost of driving becomes prohibitive for some, there has been a corresponding, albeit small, uptick in the use of public transport. This trend became evident in the second half of March, coinciding with the drop in road traffic.
Analysis of Opal card data reveals that in the week commencing March 23, there was an average of 2.408 million weekday trips, a 1.2 per cent increase compared to the same week in 2025. This trend continued into the following week (commencing March 30), where weekday trips averaged 2.405 million, representing a 1.5 per cent increase over the previous year’s corresponding period. Sustained week-on-week increases have been particularly noted in train and metro travel.
Beyond trains and buses, there is strong evidence that Sydney residents are opting for “active transport”—walking and cycling—to eliminate fuel costs entirely. Since January, the average number of daily cyclists in Greater Sydney has risen by 10.4 per cent. While cycling data is often volatile due to weather and school holidays, counts taken at 294 monitored sites on Tuesdays—typically one of the busiest commuting days—show a clear overall increase.
The surge in walking has been even more dramatic. Transport for NSW data shows a 37.69 per cent increase in the number of “walks” counted at 99 monitored sites across Greater Sydney over the past three months, with a general upward trend continuing since the start of March.
Why this matters for the city
The redistribution of commuters from private vehicles to public and active transport reflects a direct economic response to geopolitical instability. When fuel prices spike, the “cost of mobility” becomes a primary driver of urban behavior. While the rise in public transport use is modest, the significant jump in walking and cycling suggests a segment of the population is making a fundamental change in how they navigate the city.
For policymakers and urban planners, these figures highlight the fragility of road-dependent commuting and the immediate pressure placed on public infrastructure when global energy markets fluctuate. The stability of toll road usage suggests that higher-income commuters or those with essential long-distance requirements are less affected, while those on arterial roads are more likely to seek alternatives.
As fuel prices remain volatile, the next critical indicator will be the upcoming quarterly transport data, which will reveal whether these behavioral shifts are permanent adaptations or temporary reactions to the current price peak.
We invite readers to share their experiences with the current fuel costs and how they have changed their commute in the comments below.
