Taiwan Faces Critical Vote on Nuclear Power to Counter China Threat
As Taiwan considers reigniting its nuclear power, voters will decide its energy future and security amidst growing pressure from China.
Voters in Taiwan are heading to the polls on Saturday to decide the fate of their nation’s energy future, specifically whether to reignite its nuclear power capabilities. This critical decision comes as the island grapples with significant energy vulnerabilities and escalating geopolitical tensions fueled by the looming threat from China.
A Retreat from Nuclear: The Maanshan Shutdown
In May, Taiwan decommissioned the Maanshan Nuclear Power Plant, its last operational nuclear facility. This move aligns with a 2016 pledge by the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) to phase out nuclear power by 2025, a policy largely driven by concerns over nuclear fallout following Japan’s devastating 2011 Fukushima accident.
Before its recent elimination, nuclear power was a significant contributor to Taiwan’s energy mix, supplying nearly 12% of its needs in 2011. This figure steadily declined, dropping to approximately 9.5% by 2021 and just over 4% by 2022.
Taiwan’s Achilles’ Heel: Energy Dependence
The decommissioning of nuclear plants has intensified alarms among security experts regarding Taiwan’s profound energy dependence. The island currently imports up to 97% of its energy, predominantly relying on fossil fuels, which account for over 90% of its total energy usage. Renewable sources contribute a mere 7%.
Taiwan is highly reliant on nations like the U.S., Australia, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar for crucial imports of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) and crude oil. “Taiwan’s energy dependence is an Achilles heel,” stated Craig Singleton, China Program senior director and senior fellow with the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), during a media briefing earlier this month.
China’s Non-Kinetic Threat
Singleton emphasized how this vulnerability offers Beijing a potent leverage point without direct military engagement. “Beijing can exploit this issue without firing a single shot,” he warned, highlighting the ease with which China could disrupt trade. “China can leverage its maritime dominance, its legal warfare and cyber tools to choke supply and test Taiwan’s political resilience.”
This strategic assessment underscores the urgent need for Taiwan to bolster its energy security in the face of a potential China blockade.
Global Nuclear Reassessment vs. Taiwan’s Unique Predicament
Across Europe, many nations are revisiting nuclear power as a solution to reduce reliance on carbon-emitting fuels amidst escalating climate change concerns. However, some countries, like Germany, maintain a firm anti-nuclear stance, influenced by the catastrophic 1986 Chernobyl disaster. Germany itself phased out nuclear power in 2023.
Taiwan’s situation, however, diverges significantly from Germany’s. The island faces direct and immediate security challenges that necessitate a different calculus.
Wartime Scenarios and the Ukraine Lesson
Recent conflicts, particularly Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the contested Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, have underscored the inherent security risks for active nuclear facilities in wartime. Despite these concerns, experts argue that in a China blockade scenario, Taiwan’s oil reserves would likely be depleted within weeks, if not days, according to a report by DW.
Nuclear power, therefore, presents an essential additional energy storage solution for Taipei, offering crucial resilience. “Nuclear power does, in my view, change that calculus, providing a lot of continuity under coercion, and I think it really complicates Beijing’s playbook,” Singleton asserted.
Diversification and U.S. Support: A Path Forward
Ultimately, Singleton stressed the imperative for Taiwan to rapidly diversify its energy sources to mitigate risks against a potential Chinese blockade. “The U.S. needs to help Taiwan diversify fast, cut exposure to vulnerable suppliers like Qatar, and probably prepare for a contest of endurance because I think that’s exactly how China is thinking about this issue,” he explained, noting Qatar’s significant LNG exports to Beijing.
The conflict in Ukraine serves as a stark warning, illustrating how an invading force can target every aspect of an adversary’s energy infrastructure. “Ukraine shows that energy is one of the fastest ways to undermine a country’s will,” Singleton observed. “And obviously Russia targeted power to free cities and to fracture cohesion and to force concessions. I think Beijing is absolutely studying that playbook.”
