Temporarily lower tensions between China and Taiwan

2023-05-19 05:21:05

When China launched military exercises in the Taiwan Strait last month in response to a meeting in California between President Tsai Ing-wen and Speaker of the US House of Representatives Kevin McCarthy, it was said to be carrying out encirclement maneuvers (the term conveyed by Chinese propaganda) and that the pressure was still mounting between China, Taiwan and the United States.

But what if the reality were quite different and more complex?

All three sides remain on a dangerous path that leads to escalating tensionsays Amanda Hsiao, senior China analyst for theInternational Crisis Groupbased in Taipei. But you also have to know how to recognize the steps they are taking in the right direction.

In this case, the United States, China and Taiwan have made an effort to reduce the level of provocation of their actions, which was not the case before. Taiwan made a concession by moving the meeting scheduled for Taipei to California. China, although ships approached closer to Taiwan’s shores than before, conducted shorter and less exhaustive exercises than last year when it even launched ballistic missilesadds Ms. Hsiao.

The visit of former Speaker of the United States House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, sparked fury in Beijing last August. It was a few months before the Chinese Communist Party Congress, where President Xi Jinping was seeking a historic third term. He wanted to be tough on Taiwan, some analysts said.

The impact of the ballot

This year, it is the Taiwanese presidential elections scheduled for next January that would have a moderating effect on all players.

Because of the elections, I think China will be more cautious this year in its approach with Taiwan, argues Amanda Hsiao. The Chinese will want to highlight the benefits that more stable trade with them would bring to the Taiwanese. They will refrain from being too overtly aggressive this campaign season because it will undermine the larger message they are trying to send.

Because now, the China-Taiwan relationship will be at the heart of the Taiwanese election campaign. The main candidates have barely been chosen when we already know that they will want to be responsible and moderate in the face of Beijing. Indeed, no one on the island of Formosa wants war.

China wants the election of the Kuomintang (KMT), a party that is more open to conciliation, analyzes Amanda Hsiao. I think the biggest risk on the horizon is how Beijing will react to the potential re-election of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) under current Vice President William Lai.

The latter, like the previous leaders of the party, highlights the need for Taiwan to defend its sovereignty against China.

For now, the tone is more conciliatory in Beijing. Trade and politicians’ visits between China and Taiwan have intensified since the end of China’s strict zero COVID policy.

Taiwan will not waver in its commitment to improving and maintaining a strong business environmentpromised Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen on April 23 in a speech to the American Chamber of Commerce in Taiwan. Despite China’s challenges, we have been and will continue to be cautious in our handling of cross-border Straits affairs. We will not be provocative and we will work with our democratic partners to ensure peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific, especially in the Taiwan Strait.

Calming public opinion in China

The Japanese financial daily Nikkei published an analysis last week noting that those who question, on social networks, the relevance or the need for China to invade Taiwan are no longer censored. They would reflect a business class increasingly worried about the risks to the economy.

Although China does not rule out the unification of Taiwan by force, its military and security experts know from experience that it would be very difficult.says columnist Katsuji Nakazawa, who previously served as bureau chief for Nikkei in China. It therefore became necessary to calm, for the moment, a groundswell of public opinion inflamed by the propaganda of the “wolves-warriors”.

If the impression were to take hold that a war with Taiwan is imminent, it would also curb the expansion of foreign companies in China and could trigger an outflow of Chinese assets overseas. The effect on the Chinese economy would be significantsays the journalist.

Every day that passes in Ukraine confirms fears in China, according to analysts citing sources in Beijing, that an invasion of Taiwan will be neither simple nor quick.

No, the war has not started, and the Taiwanese would not benefit from living in bomb shelters. That said, even if the risk of imminent war is tenuous, that of unforeseen slippages remains present.