The Ukrainian city of Lviv, about 100 kilometers from the Polish border, will host an important meeting on Thursday, August 18 for international grain trade. This is where UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan are to meet.
The exchanges will revolve around possible improvements in the implementation of the international agreement signed on July 22 by Russia and Ukraine, thanks to Turkish mediation and under the aegis of the United Nations. This agreement created a secure maritime corridor that allowed the resumption of cargo traffic from several Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea. Since then, around twenty cargo ships have been able to leave loaded with corn and, more recently, wheat.
This corridor represents a breath of fresh air for Ukraine. “We know that 80% of cereals sold internationally in the world travel by sea, recalls Sébastien Abis, researcher at the Institute of International and Strategic Relations (Iris) and director of Club Demeter. This proportion is even 95% for Ukraine. »
The risk of a mine
Still, the agreement is still fragile in the eyes of many observers. “First there is the Russian unpredictability, points out Philippe Chalmin, professor at the University of Paris-Dauphine and specialist in raw materials. But there is also the risk of a freighter hitting a mine. In this case, it is to be feared that everything will stop. »
Faced with these hazards, others highlight the issue of insurance. “We can wonder about the number of shipowners and charterers who will agree to pay the huge surcharges demanded by insurers, Russia and Ukraine being considered as a war zoneemphasizes Paul Tourret, director of the Higher Institute of Maritime Economics in Nantes-Saint-Nazaire. If indeed the insurers agree to cover cargoes and ships. »
The agreement is no less crucial for Ukraine, engaged in a race against time to empty its silos still partly monopolized by the rest of last year’s exceptional harvest. “Between the harvest in the summer of 2021 and the start of the war in February, the Ukrainians only brought out between 50% and 75% of the quantities of cereals planned for export”, notes Sébastien Abis. According to the latter, therefore, in February, just over 20 million tonnes of grain remained to be released.
A wagon ? 50 tons!
“Since then, it is estimated that they have only been able to export 3 million tonnes at the most, a little by rail and a little by road”, adds the researcher. A ship that can carry 60,000 tonnes of grain and maritime traffic being further reduced, Sébastien Abis fears a ” traffic jam “ between the new crop and the grains and oilseeds left over from the previous season.
Since the blockade on the Black Sea ports, the Europeans have tried to promote the movement of freight wagons with Ukraine, even if a single wagon can hardly contain more than fifty tonnes of cereals… “One of the difficulties lies in the gauge of the Ukrainian railways, which is different from that of the European networks, notes Sébastien Abis. Nevertheless, significant investments could be committed by the European Union provided that it is for a long-term trade policy. »
In the meantime, the United Nations World Food Program (WFP) is eagerly awaiting an acceleration in maritime traffic. He chartered a first ship, loaded with 23,000 tonnes of wheat, which left the Ukrainian port of Youzhne on August 16 for the Horn of Africa. Its executive director, David Beasley, said in a statement that keeping Ukrainian ports open was “the most important thing we can do right now” to help hungry people around the world.