The collapse of the house of cards in Niger, a new threat on the advanced border of Spain – Javier Arias Borque

2023-08-03 06:39:02

Madrid was the setting a little over a year ago for a key summit for NATO. It was time to define the strategic compass, a document of the highest level in which the main challenges, threats, objectives and strategic scenarios that the member countries of the Atlantic Alliance will face in the following decades are defined in writing. A fundamental writing that looked towards Africa for the first time in its history.

That was one of the fundamental objectives of the Government of Spain, but also of France e Italia, two countries with enormous weight and influence in the supranational organization. This European trio coincides to a large extent in their strategic outlook towards Africa, whether for geographical or historical reasons, by placing their forward border in the middle of Sahelone of the most unstable regions of the planet.

But what does that mean the advanced frontier? That countries are not only affected by events that destabilize their border countries, but also by events that destabilize your neighbors’ neighbors, because that ends up affecting your neighbor and, consequently, you later. It is about anticipating events so as not to suffer the consequences firsthand.

In the Spanish case, it must be taken into account that Spain is the only European country with a land border on African soil (Ceuta and Melilla), the only one whose coasts can be seen by an African from comfortable viewpoints on the black continent, and the most exposed, together with Italy, to the possible uncontrolled migratory waves that arise from time to time from the North African coasts, in the that more than once a jihadist terrorist has slipped in.

NATO is not the only one that has placed the so-called African southern flank in its sights. Individually, both Spain and France, as well as the European Union as a whole, have been doing it for more than a decade, because the African Sahel has become a hotbed of jihadist groups, mafias with millionaire profits thanks to the control of illegal migratory transit and criminal groups of all kinds.

The European Union, France and Spain have maintained important military missions in recent years both in the Sahel region and in central Africa. In fact, the Spanish Armed Forces They came to have in the period 2016-2020 a third of all its military deployed abroad on African soil. But the reality is that these missions have not been able to give the expected results.

One of the big problems that Spain and the rest of the European countries have encountered is that they have tried to implement draft changes that do not give immediate results. They have offered build-up programs for African armies; advice on modernizing their Armies, but not weapons; and all this with obligations to respect human rights that are very cumbersome for many African leaders.

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In a continent where political patience is limitedthe fact that the results have not crystallized quickly has caused either the fall of the governments that collaborated with the West through coups d’état (Mali o Burkina Faso) or the total turnaround of governments to deliver themselves into the hands of Russia (Central African Republic), a step that has also ended up being taken by the military juntas that control Mali and Burkina Faso.

Russia offers military advice, cheap weapons of almost all kinds and even private armies for whatever the contracting country needs. That is why the Wagner’s mercenaries They have been operating for a few years in RCA and Mali and it is rumored that they are already on Burkinabe soil. And all this without the cumbersome respect for human rights that Western countries demand.

In fact, Moscow is knowing how to make the most of its disinformation machinery to bring his fold to many African countries. Click on the old wounds of colonization and offers them a package of political-military support away from Western aid that the Kremlin draws as the continuity of the colonialism of the old metropolis. Russia exploits European weaknesses to stir up the hornet’s nest on the advanced border of three EU and NATO countries.

Niger Until a week ago it was the great ally of the West in the fight against jihadist terrorism and organized crime in the Sahel. In this country there are military bases from France (with about 1,500 troops) and from the United States. Relations with the West are not yet totally broken, but anything could happen in the coming weeks, in which the military meetingwith only a week in power, has already made its first overtures to Moscow.

In fact, in the first demonstrations that have been seen in Niamey —the Nigerien capital— in support of the new coup authorities, russian flags. The national colors of Russia are already a symbol of rejection of the West in a large part of the African continent.

The Economic Community of West African States, a regional group that tries to imitate (with a great distance) the EU, in terms of free markets and economic integration, gave an ultimatum on Sunday to the Military Junta to restore the president and has threatened a military intervention in the country. The term is one week. Nigeria and Chad lead that stark warning.

Are we going to see a new war in Africa? Well, as of this Sunday we will know, which is when the ultimatum ends, but willing to support Niger militarily, there are at least two other countries of this organization that have suffered similar regressions in recent years and that have been blunt on this matter. : Mali and Burkina Faso. Two of the countries that are crystallizing right now the new Russian influence in the Sahel.

Whatever happens, The hornet’s nest is still agitated on the advanced border of Spain. The Sahel continues to destabilize by leaps and bounds while Russia plunges headlong into Europe’s backyard to try to complicate the situation. Southern Europe, Spain included, has to straighten out the situation.

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