The French Defense Minister, Sebastien Lecornutraveled this Wednesday to Ukraine. There he met briefly in the afternoon with the Ukrainian president, Volodímir Zelenski. An encounter held as a “trust signbetween Ukraine and France, they indicated from kyiv. Since the start of the Russian invasion on February 24, the French authorities aligned themselves with the rest of the countries of the European Union and NATO when applying numerous economic sanctions against Russia and contribute important military aid to the Ukrainian army. Paris organized on December 13 a international summit in which close to 1,000 million euros of donations were raised to help Ukraine weather the winter.
If it were only for the facts, the position of France would resemble that of a willing ally. It would be quite similar to that of most countries in the Western bloc, led by the United States. However, the statements of the president Emmanuel Macron they have generated unrest on more than one occasion in kyiv and other eastern European capitals. The centrist leader has not only made an effort to keep open a channel of dialogue with Vladimir Putinbut it has also baffled Ukrainian, Polish or Baltic leaders, who are betting on a resolution of the conflict on the battlefield.
Security guarantees to Russia
“What are we willing to do to contribute guarantees for its own security to Russia the day I return to the negotiating table?” Macron wondered, on December 3, in an interview for the French channel TF1 from United States. “One of the essential points is the fear that the I’LL TAKE reaches its gates, is the deployment of weapons that could threaten Russia,” he added.
These words ulcerated more than one leader in kyiv, but also in Warsaw, Riga, Vilna or Bucharest. “Does anyone want to provide security guarantees to a terrorist and murderous state?” Replied the secretary of the Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council, Oleksi Danilov. It was not the first time that Macron’s statements irritated his eastern allies. In the spring, he had already given rise to his warning that “Russia should not be humiliated“.
The French president ratified last week his balancing position, more moderate, at least in public, than most of its European partners. “I have always been very clear in saying that I did not think that this conflict could be ended solely by military means,” he told Le Monde and other international media during a return trip after a visit to Jordan. “I know that some defend the strategy that consists of saying that the only solution would be the destruction of one of the two parties. (…) But all those Europeans and Westerners who give me moral lessons should explain to me who they would sit down to negotiate with. No I want them to be the Chinese and the Turks the only ones to negotiate tomorrow,” he added.
A minority position
During the 10 months of conflict, Macron has stood out for his nuances regarding the position of the United States and NATO that kyiv must fight “until the last Ukrainian”. The French president has claimed that “negotiating does not mean giving up“, but he did not want to upset kyiv by insisting that it should be “the Ukrainian government that sets its negotiation conditions.”
Taking into account the current situation of the conflict, with a front almost petrified for weeks and turned into a trench warfare with drones, with a more than uncertain outcome, Macron’s commitment to sooner or later organize a negotiating table It doesn’t seem entirely unreasonable. In addition, she has the majority support of the population of her country. The 70% of the French support ending the war with a negotiated peace between Ukraine and Russia, according to a recent poll published in the Journal du Dimanche.
However, as is often the case with macronist diplomacy, one must distinguish between words and deeds. His efforts not to break the bridges with Moscow They did not bring great results. The Russian authorities not only showed no sign of wanting to negotiate – a position similar to that of the Ukrainians – but also distrust Macron as a possible intermediary, considering him too close to kyiv and Washington.
Furthermore, this more balanced position irritated its eastern European partners. turned out counterproductive in order to gain weight in an EU in which the French president intends to establish himself as its main leader after the political withdrawal of Angela Merkel. Indeed, in the spring both in Russian and Ukrainian public opinion the expression was used “macroner” to refer to someone who “talks a lot to not say much”. An ironic but also significant anecdote about Macron’s difficulties in playing a role similar to that of his predecessor Nicolas Sarkozy in the resolution of the Georgia war in 2008.