2023-11-05 21:00:15
In its Budget Plan for 2024 sent to Brussels, the acting Government calculated that the anti-inflation measures that expire on December 31, such as the reduction in VAT on food or electricity and gas. Of course, in the case of an acting Executive, he could not do anything else, given that he cannot take for granted that aid and subsidies will be extended that, in any case, It is up to the future Government to approve them or not. So it is not decided what will happen to the package of actions to combat inflation that began to be applied in June 2021 and that, with modifications, has been renewed periodically until this year. There are already voices, including that of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), that suggest that with current inflation below half of that of 2022 (3.5% compared to 8.3%) it is advisable to withdraw these measures and focus on reducing the deficit.
We cannot know what will happen from January 1, 2024, but we can evaluate what has been done so far. This is what he has done European Central Bank (ECB) in a comparative study between the six main countries of the euro zone, which yields a bittersweet balance for Spain. This document says that the set of measures against price increases compensated by a third for the loss of purchasing power of citizens, which is positive. The second conclusion is not so much: that these measures reduced inequality in the majority of countries analyzed (Italy, France, Portugal and Greece), but not in Spain or Germany. Each Government adopted its own measures, which shows that Spain did not find the most appropriate key as other countries did.
In the most serious moments of the energy price crisis, followed by the rise in food prices, The Spanish Government announced effective general measures, such as that referred to VAT, from which the entire population benefited. But Giving everyone the same is not being equitable. It is enough to observe the distribution of household spending according to income level to realize that the rise in food prices affects a poor household more than a rich one, because the former dedicates more of its income to basic purchases. than the second. In contrast to these general measures, Direct aid can be directed to the groups of most interest, that is, the most affected. This is the case of the social electricity bonus, which was expanded for vulnerable families, or the fuel subsidy to transporters (in a successful reorientation of what was initially a subsidy to all drivers without exception). Public transport discounts meet the objective of sustainable mobility, although they could be reoriented to select their beneficiaries according to socioeconomic criteria.
Analysts estimate that inflation will remain above 2% for a good season, so the ECB will think long and hard before lowering interest rates, especially with the uncertainty of the Middle East conflict. That means a probable economic slowdown, and that Companies and families will continue to face a complicated situation. The future Government will have a difficult time withdrawing anti-inflation aid, but nor will it be able to maintain them at the current level, because it would worsen the public debt. You should prioritize those that are really intended for those who need it most.
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