Almost eight months into the war in Ukraine, and its consequences in the Middle East, and especially in all that has been said regarding the sensitive issue of food supply, are well felt.
Before the fire started, Russia and Ukraine were considered two of the most important countries in the global food production arena, when they were jointly responsible for about 25% of the wheat supply. In the Middle East, wheat is a significant component of the daily menu of tens of millions of residents. The bad news for the region is that the war will have a lasting effect on the food market, even long after the fire subsides. This is because Ukraine and Russia hold approximately 30% of the global fertilizer market, and the shortage of materials Fertilization damages crops worldwide.
The starting point of the MAZAT in the field of food was low even before the war. The rapid increase in the population alongside the arid climate, the scarcity of water sources and the lands suitable for agriculture, the ignoring of environmental issues and reliance on traditional farming methods, made the region almost completely dependent on imports. For example, Saudi Arabia imports About 80% of its food needs, Kuwait, Qatar, the Emirates and Yemen 90%, Bahrain and Lebanon 85% and Egypt, 65%. Iraq imports more than 60%, Jordan and Oman about 60% and Tunisia, over 50%.
The climate change that manifested itself in recent years mainly in severe droughts, in addition to political-security instability and the corona crisis, only exacerbated the problem. Millions of people in the MENA region and North Africa suffered from hunger and malnutrition, especially in economically weak countries such as Yemen, Syria, Lebanon and Sudan, even before Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine. According to World Bank data, the share of the MENA region and North Africa Food insecurity in the world reached 20% in 2020, an alarming figure given that the residents of the region make up only 6% of the world’s population.
Egypt: 88% of the residents are entitled to subsidized bread
Egypt, the most populous country in the region, is the largest importer of wheat in the world. According to estimates, about 60% of its grain is imported, with Russia and Ukraine responsible for 80% of the supply. Due to social sensitivity, Egypt subsidizes one type of bread, which 88% of Egyptians are entitled to purchase. Due to the 45% jump in wheat prices this year, the Egyptian government announced about a month after the start of the war a price ceiling for non-subsidized breads, to try and deal with inflation. Egypt entered the war with strategic reserves sufficient for a year, which gave it breathing room to locate alternatives, with the preferred target being India.
Egypt is also one of the ten largest importers of vegetable oils, especially sunflower oil, about 75% of which originates in Russia and Ukraine. Due to the supply chain disruptions, Egypt began to produce alternatives, mainly in Malaysia and Indonesia.
Lebanon: An explosion of wheat silos led to famine
The war in Ukraine dealt a severe blow to Lebanon, although even before that a growing proportion of residents began to suffer from severe food shortages. The economic crisis that erupted in 2019, the collapse of the currency, the corona crisis and the explosion of the wheat silos (which contained 80% of the strategic stocks) in the port of Beirut in the summer of 2020, resulted in the fact that even before the war, about 50% of Lebanon’s residents suffered from hunger.
Since close to 90% of wheat imports came from Russia and Ukraine, and due to the lack of foreign exchange for imports from other sources, bread – once a basic product – became a luxury product whose price jumped fivefold within a few months. This is despite the subsidy that still remains in place, despite the crisis. Obtaining the pita The desired food has become a difficult task for the Lebanese, who are forced to stand in endless queues, due to the closure of many bakeries due to a lack of raw materials.
In order to prevent a humanitarian disaster, in May the World Bank offered Lebanon short-term aid with a loan of 150 million dollars for the purchase of wheat. Towards the end of September, the first shipment of wheat from Ukraine arrived in Lebanon since the signing of the Istanbul Agreement, which allows the country to use the port of Odessa to export the grain. In any case, the minimum amount of wheat needed for the Lebanese market is about 40,000 tons per month, and Lebanon is trying to find alternative sources with the aid of the World Bank.
the coast countries: 2% of the land is suitable for agriculture
Unlike countries like Egypt and Lebanon, the rich Gulf countries have been preparing for the crisis for over a decade and they arrived ready for it. The wake-up call for the Gulf states occurred in 2008, when the global financial crisis led to an increase in food prices and forced some of the world’s largest producers, including Russia, India and Argentina, to limit exports.
The Gulf countries, whose land area is only 2% suitable for agriculture and are forced to import over 85% of their needs, then began formulating plans for food security. These included the construction of strategic stocks, the development of agriculture adapted to the conditions of the desert and the implementation of advanced agricultural technologies. The most problematic element of the Gulf’s food security strategies was the purchase of agricultural land in poor countries, mainly in Africa, including Sudan and Ethiopia, so that the crops there could be used by their residents. Unlike other countries in the region, the reliance of the Gulf countries on grain imports from Ukraine and Russia is relatively low, and in countries such as Saudi Arabia, the Emirates and Qatar it reached about 50% of all wheat imports. Thanks to the huge oil revenues since February, the Gulf countries have the ability to maneuver to deal with rising food prices and import from alternative and more expensive destinations in Europe and the Americas.
The writer is the manager of the Concord company