The incidence of flu is approaching its peak: cases decrease but hospitalizations increase

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2024-01-11 18:08:29
Measures This is how we should use the mask against respiratory infections starting today Health Emergencies and flu: a cyclical ‘virus’ that chokes the health system

Still we haven’t reached the peak. The indicators in primary care (PC) are positive: cases have decreased by 10% compared to the previous week, but they do not accompany hospital admissions, where there is a small increase. “In order to certify that we have reached the ceiling the two elements must be consolidated“, explains Ángela Domínguez, from the Vaccine Working Group of the Spanish Society of Epidemiology (SEE), to this medium.

According to the latest report from the Acute Respiratory Infection Surveillance System (Sivira) of the Carlos III Health Institute (ISCIII), the incidence of flu in AP has decreased for the first time in four weeks throughout Spain except in the Balearic Islands (although the data for the last week is missing). The data in this record belongs to the first week of the year, from January 1 to 7.

“Yes, we have seen that there are no more cases in primary care, but there is still a minimal rebound in income. We have to hope that the trend continues for at least another week,” emphasizes Domínguez.

The figures referred to by the Epidemiology expert are observed in the incidence rate in AP, which stands at 387.4 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, compared to 430.7 cases in the previous week. This drop in cases is evident in all age groups except for those aged 45-64 years. By age groups, this week, the highest rates of AP are observed in the group of less than one year old (784.6 cases per 100,000 inhabitants). “It should be remembered that children are patients and transmitters of the virus, so they should also receive the vaccine,” recalls Francisco Sanz Herrero, secretary of the Tuberculosis and Respiratory Infections Area of ​​the Spanish Society of Pulmonology and Thoracic Surgery (Separ).

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What prevents us from consolidating at the top is the increase in income. The hospitalization rate has grown four points in the last seven days and reaches 14 cases per 100,000 inhabitants. “We are not in a collapse, but many cases have accumulated in a short time,” explains Sanz Herrero.

The hospitalization curve has been growing since the first week of last November. By age group, the highest hospitalization rates are observed in the group of adults aged 80 or over (93.7 cases/100,000 inhabitants). “The truth is that there is a lot of turnover and the stays are short,” details the Separ expert.

One more week to go on to recommend masks

With this week’s figures, the starting signal is given to the consolidation of two consecutive weeks of decline to ‘get rid of masks’ in health centers. The report comes the day after the imposition of the Ministry of Health. Yesterday afternoon the CCAA received the order signed by the minister, Monica Garcia. It included the mandatory use of masks in health centers and hospitals due to the rise in the incidence of respiratory virus infections, especially influenza, in recent weeks. This means that This week’s decline would have to be added another to be able to go from mandatory to recommendation.

For the moment, it is a “indefinite” measure that the autonomous communities may change to recommendation as long as they show a “decline in the case curve” for two weeks. Likewise, in the announcement to the media, he announced that as the general epidemiological situation in Spain improves, the Ministry of Health itself will “invite” the recommendation. In the order sent to the CCAA it is stated as follows: “This declaration of coordinated actions will produce effects from its notification to the communities and cities with autonomy status until the end of its validity is approved by the Minister of Health, with prior agreement of the Council Interterritorial of the National Health System, with an audience of all communities and cities with autonomy status.”

From the Carlos III Health Institute, Immaculate Arrow Housesdirector of the Respiratory Viruses and Influenza Research Group, explains to SMC that “the analysis of influenza, SARS-CoV-2 and Respiratory Syncytial Virus simultaneously in the laboratories of the different Autonomous Communities generates specific knowledge of the circulation of each of them. them, with the positivity rates to these three viruses being one of the markers of the evolution of acute respiratory infections in each of the epidemic seasons”.

DECREASES THE GLOBAL RATE OF INFECTIONS

In total, the global rate of acute respiratory infections in Primary Care (ARIs) is 935.1 cases/100,000 inhabitants (966.2 cases in the previous week), which implies a decrease of 3%. “We are facing another flu season, it is not more intense or virulent,” Domínguez points out.

By age groups, the highest rates of ARIs in AP occur in the group of children under one year of age (3,923.2 cases/100,000 inhabitants), followed by the group of 1-4 years of age (1,675.6 cases/100,000 population). The data show a downward trend in those under 15 years of age, while young adults and people aged 65 or over continue to rise slightly. “There is a stabilization trend in the rate of flu syndrome, while the rate of bronchiolitis decreases,” the report states.

“Now we see more cases of flu in children because we diagnose it more. We are now more specific and we are not satisfied with saying: ‘It is a viral process’. We can test it in the consultation,” says Sanz Herrero. This week, the positivity of flu cases is 41.4% compared to 44.6% in the previous week10.6% for SARS-CoV-2 (9.6% in the previous one) and 6% for respiratory syncytial virus (VRS) (9,9%).

SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE INCIDENCE OF COVID-19

Regarding the Covid-19 rate in AP, this is located at 98.8 cases per 100,000 inhabitants (93 in the previous week). By age groups, the highest rates in PC are observed in the group of children under one year of age (653.9 cases).

Regarding the hospitalization rate for Covid-19, this is at 4.2 cases per 100,000 inhabitants (3.8 in the previous one). By age groups, the highest hospitalization rates are observed in children under one year of age (40.4 cases) and in adults aged 80 or over (32.7 cases).

DECLINE OF THE RESPIRATORY SYNCYTHIAL VIRUS

On the other hand, there has also been a notable decrease in RSV cases. Specifically, the infection rate stands at 56.4 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, compared to the 95.7 cases documented in the last week of 2023.

By age groups, the highest rates of PA are observed in the group of children under one year of age (653.9 cases per 100,000 inhabitants), followed by the group of 1-4 years (201.1 cases per 100,000 inhabitants).

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