The limits of Chinese influence in the Middle East

by time news

Faced with regional geopolitical tensions and evolving security dynamics in the Middle East, Beijing is stepping up its efforts to develop its economic relations with the Arab world and forge strategic partnerships. So far, China has cautiously walked a tightrope in the region as it tries to strike a balance between the various rival parties.

So far, Beijing has focused on common interests, largely economic, and South-South cooperation. However, its growing presence in the region is likely to lead it to engage more broadly over time, especially as new challenges could lead regional powers to play a greater role following the withdrawal of the United States, and that the balance of power in the region is likely to change depending on various factors, including the future of nuclear negotiations with Iran.

Support for Iran… and its rivals

In recent years, China has increased its cooperation with Iran, through a 25-year bilateral agreement [l’accord Lion-Dragon, conclu en mars 2021]. For Tehran, whose foreign policy aims above all to strengthen the “axis of resistance”, China’s support is vital. Beijing has offered vital diplomatic support in Iran’s nuclear negotiations, and backed Iran’s membership in regional organizations such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). In recent years, China has also participated in joint naval maneuvers with Iran and Russia in the Gulf of Oman, which have served as a show of force against the West amid escalating regional tensions.

On the economic level, a large majority of Iranian oil is also exported to China, access to the international energy market being limited by the fact

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