INFOGRAPHIC – The number of cases is falling rapidly. Hospital admissions should soon follow the same trend.
The surge of the BA.5 variant, which still makes 94,000 new cases per day, is ebbing. For the first time, France will have let the Covid circulate without trying to stem the flow by barrier measures imposed on the population. At this stage, the boat France seems to have held up, even if it is always tricky to draw conclusions along the way. “Now, the reproduction number R (which reflects the dynamics of the epidemic, editor’s note) is significantly lower than 1, and continues to fall: this means that the decline is accelerating”, decrypts Mircea Sofonea, lecturer in epidemiology in Montpellier. In other words, the crest of this seventh wave seems well and truly past.
What has changed? A population now well immunized, both by natural infections and by vaccination. Experts estimate that 90-95% of the population has now contracted the virus at least once. In addition, approximately 93% of eligible French people received the first doses of vaccine, and two thirds received at least one booster dose. The summer season, when more time is spent outdoors, was also considered to be a favorable factor, despite a few days of heat wave which prompted people to prefer indoors.
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If the dynamic is indisputable, the scale of the number of people affected is probably underestimated. This is evidenced by the data collected by the Obépine wastewater monitoring network. “In Île-de-France, concentrations have risen to levels close to what we experienced this winter with Omicron”, explains Laurent Moulin, head of the Obépine interest group. However, the maximum national incidence had been estimated at 3,800 cases per 100,000 inhabitants at the end of January (against, therefore, 1,349 counted this time). This decorrelation between official data and the actual circulation of the virus is undoubtedly explained by the generalization of self-tests, the results of which are not communicated to the health authorities. Even the total absence of a test in front of a “cold” or a “crack” which only disturbs a few days.
The Scientific Council, which published its last opinion on Wednesday before its dissolution at the end of July, further predicts that “hospitalizations will continue to increase and should peak in the second half of July.” “It is still too early to say how big the peak in conventional care and critical care hospitalizations will be, as well as the number of deaths, continue the experts. It seems that we are getting closer to the figures observed with the BA.2 wave, last April.
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“Living with the virus”
The Pr Marc Gainnier, head of the intensive care unit at La Timone hospital in Marseille (AP-HM), observes an increase “undeniable” hospitalizations for Covid, but believes that this wave “does not weigh on the public hospital in the current state of things. The real problem is the closed beds due to lack of staff”. In his department, patients cared for due to severe Covid all have numerous comorbidities. “We have no patient without a history, as may have been the case at the start of the pandemic.” It would not be a question, however, of thinking that this seventh wave is “neutral”with en garde Mircea Sofonea. “Mortality is still growing, and at such a rate that it could double again,” warns the epidemiologist. “It’s a lot.”.
In its latest opinion, the Scientific Council observes that the 25,000 Covid-related deaths recorded from January to the end of May have not “for the moment not aroused a particularly strong reaction within the population”. “A “living with the virus” type strategy is in fact taking shape in a new epidemic context”, note the experts. A “significant change” which must be accompanied, if necessary, by “viral circulation control measures, such as the obligation to wear a mask in certain places, (…) to reduce the health and economic impact, and better secure certain essential living places where the most vulnerable must go, such as transport”, he defends.