2023-10-31 11:43:25
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The peak of solar cycle activity known as Solar Cycle 25 is estimated to occur between January and October 2024. Photo/Space/NOAA
WASHINGTON – Peak activity cycle sun known as Solar Cycle 25, it is estimated to occur between January and October 2024. NOAA said the peak cycle of solar activity that occurs every 25 years is expected to be stronger and last longer.
The solar cycle describes a period of approximately 11 years of solar activity driven by the sun’s magnetic field. These events are indicated by the frequency and sunspot intensity that is visible on the surface.
Predictions of when solar maximum will occur are based on long-term historical records of the number of sunspots. In 2019 experts at NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) predicted the solar activity cycle would occur in 2025, but the latest data could occur sooner.
“We hope that our new experimental estimates will be much more accurate than the 2019 panel predictions. Unlike previous solar cycle predictions, these estimates will continue to be updated every month as new sunspot observations become available,” said Mark Miesch, NOAA scientist, quoted by SINDOnews from the Space page, Tuesday (31/10/2023).
This revised prediction is good news for eclipse hunters because the total solar eclipse on April 8 2024 will occur close to the sun’s maximum point. In total, when the moon covers the entire disk of the sun, the sun’s outer atmosphere (known as the corona) is visible to observers.
Accurate predictions of solar activity are critical because geomagnetic storms triggered by plasma explosions known as coronal mass ejections can affect power grids, GPS signals and drag satellites out of orbit. In fact, it poses a radiation risk for aviation workers and astronauts.
Early warning of space weather events can help industry implement safety procedures to reduce risks to their equipment and workers. “We can’t ignore space weather, but we can take appropriate actions to protect ourselves,” NASA said.
Of course we also have natural protection, namely the earth’s magnetic field. When energetic particles and magnetic fields are released from the Sun during events such as solar flares and coronal mass ejections, the Earth is sometimes in the line of fire.
When this happens, Earth’s protective magnetic bubble known as the magnetosphere expels harmful energy from Earth and traps it in zones called the Van Allen radiation belts. These doughnut-shaped radiation belts can swell when solar activity increases.
But our protective shield is not invincible. During very strong space weather events, which occur more frequently at times of maximum solar activity, the Earth’s magnetic field is disrupted and geomagnetic storms can penetrate the magnetosphere and cause widespread radio and power blackouts and harm astronauts and satellites orbiting the Earth.
However, not all magnetospheric disturbances are destructive, and one disturbance in particular produces extraordinary displays, namely auroras. The phenomenon is known as the northern lights (aurora borealis) in the northern hemisphere and the southern lights (aurora australis) in the southern hemisphere and is triggered by energetic particles directed towards the earth’s poles and colliding with oxygen and nitrogen atoms in the earth’s atmosphere.
(wib)
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