Berlin – It is the final spurt in the election campaign and for days the parties have been fighting specifically for a group that could have a decisive impact on the election – the undecided. Chancellor Angela Merkel recently courted her at a rainy event in Stralsund. Green chancellor candidate Annalena Baerbock has been luring her for days with green promises of departure, for which she needs her vote.
And so the undecided voters in the last few meters become one of the special features of this election campaign, which can hardly be topped in terms of surprises anyway. The sudden rise of the SPD, the sagging Union, the polls that currently only predict three-party coalitions – and then the eligible voters who have not yet made a decision. In the latest YouGov poll, 74 percent of respondents said they have already made a final decision. 15 percent said they didn’t want to make a final decision until later. After all: Before that, 40 percent were still undecided.
Undecided voters often wait until the end
The undecided could still influence the election result. Political scientist Oskar Niedermayer is certain of that. He is also convinced that many eligible voters can still be mobilized until Sunday: “Those who are undecided are not non-voters.” Some only made a decision on the last few meters, he says: “There is still room for improvement.” Many then went to vote.
According to the emeritus professor of politics from the Free University of Berlin, the proportion of voters with a firm commitment to one party has declined. The electorate is therefore more flexible today and can be influenced more strongly by short-term influences. And tactical voters also currently do not know which coalition could come about. The renowned political scientist said of the Berliner Zeitung: “That is difficult because no party has definitely committed itself to coalitions.”
He could imagine that the undecided could tip the scales in the election result: “That could be possible, with the proportion of undecided it now depends on whom they are now closest to and whether they can still be mobilized. “
CDU supporters in particular are still hesitating
Above all, the undecided voters close to the CDU could turn the wheel, according to Niedermayer. “One could assume the greatest potential in the CDU, because many did not want Laschet as a candidate and because of him are considering whether to vote at all or another party – possibly also the SPD.” However, it should be noted that bourgeois voters do not have a left-wing alliance want. “They could ultimately decide in favor of the CDU – despite Laschet. Just to prevent red-red-green. ”There is also often a last-minute swing – in favor of the party of the incumbent head of government, even if Angela Merkel is no longer running. “Therefore, among the undecided, there may be more voters that the Union can win.”
The SPD, on the other hand, can be seen from the surveys that “it has already pretty much exhausted its voter potential”. With the Greens, voters could migrate to the SPD because they would like to have it as a ruling party – together with the Greens. One component also speaks in favor of an election victory for the SPD. Oskar Niedermayer says: “Many voters also wanted to be among the winners and therefore vote for the SPD because it is at the top of the polls.”
It is always exciting – and it cannot be ruled out that it will look different on election evening than it currently appears, according to the political scientist.
This time there seems to be a feeling in the air that something could happen that could be relevant for the decision ”
Political scientist Rüdiger Schmitt-Beck
Political scientist Rüdiger Schmitt-Beck from the University of Mannheim does not rule out the possibility that hesitant voters could turn the result on Sunday: “That can be.” In every election there is a base of undecided people who tend to decide shortly before the election or with an increased probability not at all and ultimately abstain. This time, many held out for a particularly long time – because of the “extremely open outcome of the election,” says the political scientist. “Voters want a maximum of information in order to commit themselves.”
That differentiates the current from previous federal elections, since the decisions would have been made at an earlier point in time. “This time there seems to be a feeling in the air that something could happen that could be relevant for the decision,” says the political scientist. Last but not least, the unseen ups and downs in opinion polls irritate many voters. So they hesitated.
Too many coalition options frighten many eligible voters
There are many reasons for this, says Schmitt-Beck. “The first is that it’s a big cut because there are no heads of government up for re-election. That has never happened before. ”In addition, there were three candidates for chancellor for whom the word triell had to be invented. Two of them – Laschet and Baerbock – were not very well known among the electorate, at least initially. It is also still unclear which coalitions will exist after the election. Schmitt-Beck: “For the first time we have a situation in which it is unlikely that the traditional, desired party coalitions – that is, black-yellow or red-green – even have a chance of gaining a majority. Most likely it will result in a three-party coalition and that is an absolute first at the federal level in the history of the Federal Republic. “
The political scientist continues: “I don’t dare to make a precise forecast, but I don’t think that the SPD will actually become the strongest party.”