Mikhail Khodorkovsky knows exactly what Vladimir Putin is capable of. For having defied the “tsar” and denounced the corruption of his regime, the former boss of the oil giant Yukos, who was the richest man in Russia, spent ten years in prison and in a labor camp on the outskirts of Siberia. Exiled to London since 2015, the opponent campaigns for the democratization of Russia with his foundation, and reflects on the post-Putin era. He calls on the West to help Ukraine defeat the Kremlin tyrant. Before it is too late.
“When you look at the war in Ukraine from afar, for example from Washington, across the Atlantic; from London, on the British island; or even from Paris, on the European continent, you can ask, “Why should we get involved in this ‘eternal argument between Slavs?’ No one but a few historians can say how many times in the last millennium these lands have changed hands, or into which hands they passed exactly. And some might think, “Well, they’ll change hands one more time, and then one more time…”
Of course, they acknowledge, war is a horrible and unpleasant thing. It is therefore essential to put an end to it at all costs. Even if that ultimately means that Putin scores a personal victory, even if he puts his viceroy in Kyiv and de facto pushes his borders all the way to Poland. After all, there is nothing new to his request – “The return of NATO to the perimeter of 1997” was already a reality at the time of the USSR and its zone of influence.
Unfortunately, this type of reasoning does not work.
“I know Putin well”
I remember the USSR perfectly, from the inside. I know Putin well, his entourage, the power system he created and at the same time, like all of us, I observe what is happening in the rest of the world.
Since World War II, we have become accustomed to placing a high price on human life; the inviolability of frontiers; to the resolution of national and international problems through legal battles or very local operations, without massive destruction; free movement of people, ideas, goods and capital. We are accustomed to not questioning the priority given to human rights and we have forgotten how much our well-being, our freedoms and our capacity to act derive from this much decried globalization.
Many regimes are dissatisfied with the existing world order and would like to change it. We have somehow learned to live with them and even to coexist with them. But today the situation has changed.
I spent more than ten years in prison, where Putin sent me, and I was forced to live with criminals. The usual laws are not respected there, but they have their own rules and their own laws. However, there are people in captivity who deny all rules. Who cannot be trusted, who are used to starting any relationship with the use of force and for whom there are no limits. These lawless individuals, no one wants to deal with them. And sometimes the community tries to get rid of it.
“The war in Ukraine is not an isolated event”
Under Putin’s regime, for the first time, a gang of criminals took control of a large nuclear-armed state. These people have committed many crimes. They are now afraid of losing power and see war as the solution to their problems. We have seen how this regime has evolved, gradually rejecting the rule of law and the least decency. On February 24, 2022, when he started bombing Ukrainian cities and announced his intention to conquer a neighboring country, Putin’s regime crossed the line between an ordinary thug and a lawless person.
Putin came to power in the wake of the war in Chechnya. He held on there by waging war in Georgia and then annexing Crimea. By engaging in the war in Syria, he has also strengthened his influence and weight on the international scene. And now we are witnessing this large-scale aggression against Ukraine. The war in Ukraine is not an isolated event, but a logical consequence of the system put in place by Putin to deal with internal and external political problems.
This system was effective for a long time, but today it leads the head of the Kremlin to try to destroy the foundations of modern European civilization and, more broadly, of human civilization – confidence in the law, confidence in the rejection of war and outright violence as means of conflict resolution.
The Soviet leaders were not the nicest people, but they all experienced the Great Patriotic War (World War II) and they understood the importance of peace. This is not the case with Putin and his entourage: they are thugs from the backyards of St. Petersburg in the 1990s – the Chicago of the Russian 1930s. Violence is for them a mode of operation. They imagined the war (and continue to imagine it) as a great confrontation between gangsters. In this showdown, they are safe, as gang leaders. The western world, in their minds, is a collection of delicate citizens, who can and should be robbed and humiliated over and over again.
“In Putin’s eyes, the West is a tolerant herd”
In the slang of Russian prisons, we come across “tolerated”. This word refers to people with victim behavior. In the eyes of Putin and his entourage, the West is a tolerant herd, which bleats when the head of the Kremlin asks for something, but always ends up giving in and accepting his conditions and those of his gang. They will accept the questioning of the rules of the world order, to betray each other among allies, to pay for their energy resources…
Putin thinks he can live off the West, regularly giving it a good scare. He needs that same West, because to be able to keep power within his gang, you need an enemy, the blood of a victim. Today, this victim is Ukraine, tomorrow it will be Moldova, the Baltic countries, Poland, the Balkans… The aim of this aggression is to keep power in Russia, to scare the West, to give in.
But Putin’s regime is not alone in rejecting the foundations of international law. It now inspires Africa and the Middle East. Many small and large tsars will be ready to follow his example, if it becomes clear that flouting all the rules is rewarded. After all, the sheriff – the West – is old and weak, and the houses of its people are full of wealth.
“Ukraine must win!”
I know better than anyone that the criminal underworld is ruthless. If violence is rewarded, it increases in all the streets. We all see how the Kremlin has already managed to increase the level of corruption in Europe. And to pervert values. In Ukraine, it is no longer about money, but about lives, about dignity. We are beginning to return to that forgotten time when simple violence reigned.
The way forward is clear: do not let tyranny win. Nowhere and never. Whatever the cost today, it will be higher tomorrow. Now, on the one hand, there is Putin and, on the other, Ukraine, which opposes him. If Ukraine wins, would-be bullies will learn the lesson: break the rules, and you won’t live long.
If tyranny wins in Ukraine, expect it to come to you. In Europe, but not only. Coming from Putin, but not only from him.
When the nuclear chain reaction has started in the heart of a reactor, control rods can be inserted to slow down the reaction. Or decide to wait and see what happens, because this operation is too expensive. Then, the probability is great that a radioactive cloud will spread throughout the world and deposit its toxic fallout in dozens of places that thought they were out of reach.
Ukraine must win!”