“To move away from catch-all analyzes on “populism”, we must combine the lessons of political economy with those of electoral studies”

2023-12-22 12:30:09

The “populist” wave would therefore be back. Weakened democracies would fall one after the other into “illiberalism”, victims of the distrust of a dissatisfied electorate. Commentators lump Argentina, the Netherlands and polls highlighting Donald Trump’s lead over Joe Biden; while forgetting the defeat of PiS in Poland and the new government agreement sealed by the left in Spain.

To move away from catch-all analyzes of populism, we must combine the lessons of political economy with those of electoral studies, by studying as closely as possible the social groups who recognize themselves in the different candidates and the policies on which the disagreements relate. fundamental.

Let’s take Argentina: Javier Milei came far behind the center-left candidate, Sergio Massa, in the first round (respectively 30% and 37% of the votes cast). Milei’s voters come overwhelmingly from the provinces, but they are not limited to there. The latter would never have won without the support of Patricia Bullrich, a candidate from the traditional right pushed to rally by former president Mauricio Macri. Certainly, Massa won in the province of Buenos Aires, but in the Argentine capital, he only came out on top in Municipality 8, which includes Villa Soldati, Villa Lugano and Villa Riachuelo, in other words the most popular neighborhoods. modest.

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Conversely, in the privileged residential neighborhoods of Palermo, Nuñez, Belgrano and Colegiales, almost 70% of the votes went to Milei, as to other right-wing presidents before him. To govern, the new Argentine president will have to rely in Parliament on the center-right coalition Juntos por el cambio (“united for change”).

From to two

In the Netherlands, already in 2016, Geert Wilders was ahead of Mark Rutte’s right-wing liberals (VVD) a few months before the 2017 legislative elections, before finishing in second position. Six years later, we observe that 15% of its voters had voted for the VVD in the previous legislative elections, in 2021. In the meantime, the VVD candidate, Dilan Yesilgöz-Zegerius, had opened the door to a coalition with Wilders , defending the toughening of migration policy.

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The term “populist” is most often used to place right-wing and left-wing oppositions back to back. The socio-economic analysis based on precise data and a historical perspective shows that, rather than accusing unconscious voters, it would be appropriate to discuss the responsibility of the so-called “traditional right” parties.

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