The Trump administration claims 250,000 non-citizens are registered to vote in four states, but experts and state officials say the methodology is flawed and the numbers are exaggerated, with legal and political consequences looming as midterm elections approach.
Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin has amplified President Donald Trump’s assertion that 250,000 non-citizens are registered to vote in California, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Nevada, a claim that has drawn sharp criticism from election experts and state officials. The administration’s data has been called unreliable, with critics warning it risks falsely targeting eligible voters and undermining public trust in the electoral system.
The Administration’s Claims and Methodology
Mullin’s statements, made during a press conference following Trump’s prime-time address, rely on a methodology that has been widely disputed. The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) compared voter data against internal records of non-citizens, but the process has been criticized for generating false positives,
where lawful residents are incorrectly flagged as ineligible. David Becker, executive director of the Center for Election Innovation and Research, said during a CBS News special report that the data likely includes a ton of people, maybe even a majority of people, who are absolutely eligible voters.
The 250,000 figure, which Mullin described as a cumulative
number, is based on an analysis of commercial databases. For example, Mullin’s letter to Pennsylvania noted that there may be as many as 14,576 non-citizens on the states voter rolls,
but that 8,594 came up as matches as non-citizens on its files. When you do these sort of evaluations or investigations, and it’s based on matching data, you get a lot of false positives,
said Pennsylvania Secretary of State Al Schmidt, a Republican.
State Reactions and Legal Challenges
The administration’s efforts to obtain voter rolls have faced legal setbacks. A judge ruled that the DHS program that is central to the audits is illegal, and more than a dozen courts have sided with states that refused to provide their voter rolls. New Hampshire’s Secretary of State David Scanlan, whose state recently secured the dismissal of a DOJ lawsuit seeking voter data, called the administration’s threats a temper tantrum disguised as an official letter.
Expert Criticisms and False Positives
Election experts emphasize that confirmed cases of non-citizens voting are exceedingly rare. The U.S. All evidence has shown that noncitizen voting is extremely rare across the country, including in Pennsylvania,
Schmidt said.
The citizenship verification system used by DHS, known as SAVE, has a reputation for presenting an inflated picture of registered non-citizens.
Experts also questioned the administration’s focus on noncitizen voting as a distraction from broader election security concerns. This isn’t about rehashing the 2020 election. This is just exposing what took place, and to make sure it never happens again,
Mullin said. However, critics argue the claims lack evidence and risk eroding public confidence in the electoral process.
The dispute is intensifying as the November midterm elections approach. The president has been pressuring Congress to pass the SAVE America Act, which would require Americans to show a photo ID to cast a ballot and present proof of citizenship in person to register to vote.
As the legal and political battles unfold, the accuracy of the administration’s claims remains in question. With states resisting federal overreach and experts warning of flawed methodologies, the debate over election security is likely to shape the political landscape in the coming months. For now, the focus remains on whether the federal government can prove its assertions or if the claims will be dismissed as another attempt to cast doubt on the integrity of U.S. elections.
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