WASHINGTON, January 5, 2024 – U.S.President Donald Trump warned Friday that Iran faces “big trouble” as protests escalate nationwide, signaling a potential military response if Iranian authorities suppress demonstrators with violence.
Protests Gain Momentum, Raising Stakes for U.S. Intervention
The President’s comments come amid growing unrest in iran and a delicate balancing act for the U.S. regarding potential involvement.
- President Trump stated the U.S. could respond with force if Iran violently cracks down on protesters.
- He indicated a reluctance to instantly back an exiled crown prince, preferring to observe how the situation unfolds.
- U.S.intelligence assesses the protests, while growing, do not yet threaten the Supreme Leader’s authority.
“Iran’s in big trouble. It looks to me that the people are taking over certain cities that nobody thought where really possible just a few weeks ago,” Trump told reporters at the White House. He issued a stark warning to Iranian leaders: “You better not start shooting as they will get hit very hard.”
Trump indicated he was not currently inclined to meet with Reza Pahlavi, the exiled crown prince and son of the late Shah of Iran. This suggests a desire to assess the crisis’s trajectory before endorsing an opposition leader.”I think that we should let everybody go out there and see who emerges,” Trump told conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt on Thursday. “I’m not sure necessarily that it would be an appropriate thing to do.”
Pahlavi, who resides near Washington, has actively called for continued mass demonstrations on social media.In a Friday post, he urged Trump to increase his involvement with “attention, support and action.” “You have proven and I know you are a man of peace and a man of your word. Please be prepared to intervene to help the people of Iran,” he stated.
What is the current assessment of the protests’ impact on Iran’s leadership? According to a U.S. intelligence community assessment earlier this week, the protests are not yet large enough to challenge the authority of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, a source familiar with U.S. intelligence reports revealed.
However, U.S. analysts are closely monitoring the situation. The source added, “Prior to the last 24 hours the protests were broadly concentrated in cities where opposition to the regime has always been a thing. moving to strongholds (like the Supreme Leader’s hometown of Mashad) is the significant advancement.”
A White House spokesperson stated, “We don’t comment on matters of intelligence. as the President has stated repeatedly, if Iran shoots and violently kills peaceful protesters, ‘They will get hit very hard.'” The CIA declined to comment.
Iran’s unrest unfolds as Trump simultaneously addresses the ouster of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and explores the possibility of acquiring Greenland, either through purchase or military force. He previously ordered U.S.-led bombing raids on Iranian nuclear facilities last June and has warned he is prepared to do so again should Tehran attempt to reconstitute its nuclear program.
“I just hope the protesters in Iran are going to be safe, because that’s a very dangerous place right now,” Trump said.
Strategic Considerations and U.S. Approach
Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran program at the Middle East Institute think tank, suggested Trump appears to be waiting to see if the protests can destabilize Iran’s ruling clerics before committing to intervention. Vatanka explained, “Trump ‘wants to be on the winning side, but he prefers a swift win, not a win that requires a lot of investment and holding hands, certainly not in the Middle East.’ To him, that’s just against everything he stood for as a politician, going back to when he frist ran.”
