Trump Tariffs: Appeals Court Ruling & Trade Uncertainty

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Ever since Donald Trump became the 47th US President, there has been a lot of uncertainty over tariffs. While it seemed that the uncertainty would subside after a judge ruled that the President overstepped his authority by imposing “reciprocal tariffs” on nearly all countries, there are signs that the trade war might escalate further.

A Timeline of Trump’s Tariffs

Trump vowed to bridge the country’s burgeoning trade deficits with his tariffs, and days into his presidency, he signed an executive order imposing blanket tariffs of 25% on most imports from Canada and Mexico, and a 10% tariff on Canadian energy products, citing border security and drug trafficking concerns. He also announced 10% tariffs on goods from China for the country’s alleged role in the US fentanyl crisis, which he later raised to 20%

Subsequently, he announced 25% tariffs on US steel and aluminum imports, which were even higher than his previous tenure when he had imposed a 25% tariff on steel and a 10% tariff on aluminum imports. He also imposed a 25% tariff on imports of cars and car parts.

On April 2, Trump announced reciprocal tariffs on nearly all countries. However, he later lowered the tariffs to 10% on all countries, barring China. At one point, imports from China attracted a tariff of as high as 145% amid the escalating trade war between the two countries. However, after a meeting between the two sides in Geneva, Trump lowered the reciprocal tariff on China to 10%. China is still subject to the 20% fentanyl-related duties, so imports from that country were subject to a 30% tariff in total.

The trade truce between the world’s two biggest economies came in as a big relief to markets.

Bessent Says US-China Trade Talks “Are A Bit Stalled”

Meanwhile, there are signs that the US-China truce is not holding off well. Speaking with Fox News, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that U.S.-China trade talks “are a bit stalled” and would require intervention from top leaders of both countries.

“I think that given the magnitude of the talks, given the complexity, that this is going to require both leaders to weigh in with each other,” said Bessent. He added, “They have a very good relationship and I am confident that the Chinese will come to the table when President Trump makes his [preferences] known.”

In a post on Truth Social, President Trump said that his tariffs hurt the Chinese economy badly. “Two weeks ago China was in grave economic danger! The very high Tariffs I set made it virtually impossible for China to TRADE into the United States marketplace which is, by far, number one in the World. We went, in effect, COLD TURKEY with China, and it was devastating for them. Many factories closed and there was, to put it mildly, “civil unrest,” he wrote on a long post.

Jamie Dimon Believes China Would Buckle Under Pressure

Meanwhile, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon has dismissed the notion that China would buckle under President Trump’s tariffs. “They’re not scared, folks. This notion that they’re going to come bow to America, I wouldn’t count on that,” said Dimon.

While Dimon said that China is a “potential adversary,” he added, “What I’m really worried about is us. Can we get our own act together? Our own values, our own capabilities, our own management.”

Dimon also warned that if the US is not the “preeminent military and preeminent economy in 40 years, we will not be the reserve currency. That’s a fact.” The JPMorgan chair advised urgency and said, “We have to get our act together, and we have to do it very quickly.”

Trump Raises Steel and Aluminum Tariffs to 50%

In a jolt to Trump, a US judge blocked his reciprocal tariffs late last monthwhich the administration appealed. The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit approved the administration’s request to temporarily pause a lower-court ruling.

Meanwhile, Trump has signaled yet another escalation in the trade war and has doubled the steel and aluminum tariffs to a whopping 50%. The President made the announcement at a U.S. Steel Corporation facility in Pennsylvania that he visited after approving the company’s acquisition by Japan’s Nippon Steel, which he had previously opposed.

The EU has vowed to retaliate against the tariffs and said, “If no mutually acceptable solution is reached, both existing and additional EU measures will automatically take effect on 14 July—or earlier, if circumstances require,” the EU spokesperson said.

They added, “This decision adds further uncertainty to the global economy and increases costs for consumers and businesses on both sides of the Atlantic.”

Trade Tensions Are Hurting US Companies Also

Meanwhile, growing US-China tensions are also working to the detriment of US brands. China is increasingly becoming a tough market for foreign brands like Apple, General Motors, and Starbucks, and they have been losing market share to domestic Chinese companies.

Apple lost its position as the biggest smartphone seller in China last year and fell to the third spot as domestic Chinese rivals gained market share at the iPhone maker’s cost. Vivo was the top-selling brand in the world’s second-biggest economy last year, followed by Huawei, whose sales have surged over the last two years.

According to data from research firm Canalys, Apple’s shipments in China fell 17% YoY in 2024, which was the biggest annual decline for the Cupertino-based company. Moreover, its shipments fell in all four quarters, with the pace of decline widening to 25% in the fourth quarter.

Apple had a full-year market share of 15% in China last year, while Huawei and Vivo had 16% and 17% share, respectively. Huawei has come up with competitively priced premium models and has grabbed significant market share from Apple

Many economists have expressed concerns that the trade uncertainty could push the US economy into a recession.

About Mohit PRO INVESTOR

Mohit Oberoi is a freelance finance writer based in India. He has completed his MBA in finance as a major. He has over 15 years of experience in financial markets. He has been writing extensively on global markets for the last eight years and has written over 7,500 articles. He covers metals, electric vehicles, asset managers, tech stocks, and other macroeconomic news. He also loves writing on personal finance and topics related to valuation.

time.news Asks: Is the Trade War Back? expert Analysis on Trump’s Tariffs

Time.news: Welcome, readers. The topic of trade wars has been dormant for a while, but recent developments suggest it’s time to revisit the issue. Today, we’re joined by Dr. Eleanor Vance, an international trade economist at the Global Economic Institute, to unpack the implications of potential renewed tariffs adn trade tensions under a possible second Trump administration. Dr. Vance, thanks for being with us.

Dr. Vance: It’s my pleasure to be here.

Time.news: Let’s dive right in. The article mentions a timeline of Trump’s tariffs, including those targeting China, Canada, and even steel and aluminum imports. Can you give our readers a brief overview of how these tariffs impacted the global economy during President Trump’s first term, and how might a return to these trade war tactics affect businesses and consumers today?

Dr. Vance: The initial implementation of these tariffs introduced notable uncertainty and volatility into global markets. We saw disruptions in supply chains as businesses scrambled to adapt to increased costs. For consumers, this translated to higher prices on various goods, from imported goods from China and steel used for construction to cars. Retaliatory tariffs from other countries also hurt U.S. exporters, such as farmers in the US. A re-escalation of these global trade issues could exacerbate existing inflationary pressures and dampen economic growth.

time.news: The article quotes Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent saying U.S.-China trade talks are “a bit stalled,” and Jamie Dimon voicing concerns about America’s overall economic competitiveness. What’s your assessment of the current U.S.-China relationship, and how significant is the risk of a full-blown trade war resuming or escalating, and how trade impacts the economy?

Dr. Vance: The relationship between the US and China remains complex and strained.While there have been periods of de-escalation, fundamental disagreements over trade practices, technology, and geopolitical issues persist. The risk of renewed trade tension is significant. A full-blown resumption of the trade war could damage both economies, disrupt global supply chains further, and potentially lead to geopolitical instability.

Time.news: The piece highlights that some U.S. companies, like Apple, are already facing challenges in the Chinese market, losing market share to domestic competitors. Could increased tariffs accelerate this trend, and what strategies can U.S. businesses employ to mitigate these risks?

Dr. Vance: Absolutely. Increased tariffs would likely intensify the competitive pressure on U.S. companies in China.To mitigate these risks, businesses can diversify their supply chains, explore alternative markets, and focus on innovation and product differentiation to maintain a competitive edge. They might also consider strategic partnerships with local Chinese firms to navigate the complex regulatory landscape.

Time.news: The article mentions trump increasing tariffs on steel and aluminum to 50%. How can this increase in tariffs affect businesses?

Dr Vance: This will increase the cost of steel and aluminum to manufactures in the USA, especially manufacturers who use steel and aluminum as key manufacturing component materials. Consequently, they need to pass the additional cost to consumer or absorb it.

Time.news: The EU has vowed to retaliate against the 50% steel and aluminum tariffs, stating, “This decision adds further uncertainty to the global economy and increases costs for consumers and businesses on both sides of the Atlantic.” What steps should businesses take to protect themselves from this?

Dr. Vance: Businesses should start by reviewing their contracts and supply chains to understand their reliance on specific countries and materials. Diversification of suppliers,notably to countries not involved in the trade war,is one key step. companies can also explore hedging strategies to mitigate currency risks and price volatility. Government may impose increase in tariffs so it is wise to plan your business accordingly. engage with trade associations and industry groups to stay informed about policy developments and potential advocacy efforts.

Time.news: Many economists are concerned that trade uncertainty could push the US economy into a recession. Is this a valid concern?

Dr.Vance: Depending on how quickly and comprehensively the trade war comes back and the response by the trade partners of the U.S.,it could most definitely impact inflation and cause the value of the dollar to fluctuate.While there is no way to 100% accurately predict this, it is a possibility.

Time.news: dr. Vance,thank you for your insights today. It’s a complicated picture, but your expertise has helped shed light on the potential impact of renewed trade tensions.

Dr. Vance: You’re welcome. It’s important for businesses and consumers to stay informed and prepare for potential changes in the global trade landscape.