WASHINGTON, February 26, 2024
Trump eyes Venezuelan Oil, But Experts See Major Hurdles
Table of Contents
The former president envisions a swift takeover of Venezuela’s oil industry, but realities on the ground-and the complexities of global energy markets-suggest a far more difficult path.
- Following the reported capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás maduro and his wife, Donald Trump outlined plans for U.S. oil companies to “fix” Venezuela’s oil infrastructure.
- Venezuela holds some of the world’s largest oil reserves, but production has dramatically declined since the mid-1990s.
- Experts caution that international oil prices, political instability, and the desires of American companies pose important challenges to Trump’s vision.
- Trump’s approach to energy policy reflects a belief in directly controlling resources, reminiscent of past statements regarding Iraq.
Donald Trump has made his intentions clear: a future for Venezuela is one where the United States profits from its vast oil reserves. “We’re going to have our vrey large United States oil companies-the biggest anywhere in the world-go in, spend billions of dollars, fix the badly broken infrastructure, the oil infrastructure,” the former president told reporters at a news conference Saturday, following reports of the capture of Venezuelan president Nicolás maduro and his wife. The prospect of easily accessing Venezuelan oil is fueling Trump’s ambitions, but experts suggest the path to an “oil revolution” won’t be as straightforward as he believes.
A Disconnect between Vision and Reality
“The disconnect between the Trump administration and what’s really going on in the oil world, and what American companies want, is huge,” says Lorne Stockman, an analyst with Oil Change International, a clean energy and fossil fuels research and advocacy institution. The core issue isn’t simply about wanting the oil; it’s about the feasibility of obtaining it.
Venezuela possesses some of the largest proven oil reserves globally. Though, oil production has plummeted as the mid-1990s, after President Hugo Chávez nationalized much of the industry. in 2018, the country was producing just 1.3 million barrels of oil each day, a significant drop from over 3 million barrels daily in the late 1990s. For context,the united States,currently the world’s top crude oil producer,averaged 21.7 million barrels per day in 2023. Sanctions imposed on Venezuela during the frist Trump administration further curtailed production.
“Drill, Baby, Drill” and a History of Resource Control
Trump has repeatedly suggested that increasing Venezuelan oil production would benefit the oil and gas industry, expecting American companies to lead the charge. This aligns with his well-known “drill, baby, drill” ideology. His thinking echoes past statements,including a critique of the Iraq War where he argued the U.S. should have “taken the oil” to “reimburse ourselves” for the cost of the conflict.
Rory Johnston, a Canadian oil market researcher, describes Trump’s view of energy geopolitics as viewing the world “almost like the world is a Settlers of Catan board-you kidnap the president of Venezuela and, ipso facto, you now control all the oil.” Johnston adds, “I do think he legitimately, to a degree, believes that. It’s not true, but I think that’s an significant frame for how he’s justifying and driving the momentum of his policy.”
