WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump is set to deliver his State of the Union address Tuesday evening against a backdrop of eroding public trust in his handling of the economy. While he once enjoyed a reputation as a pro-business leader, recent polling data reveals a significant shift in sentiment, presenting a challenge as he attempts to rally support ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. The speech will be closely watched as a potential reset of his economic messaging, or a doubling down on existing strategies.
A recent AP-NORC poll conducted this month found that only 39% of Americans approve of President Trump’s economic performance, while a majority – 59% – disapprove. This marks a considerable decline from earlier in his presidency, even during the economic disruptions of the Covid-19 pandemic, according to the same poll. The shift in public perception is particularly concerning for Republicans, who are hoping to capitalize on economic anxieties in the upcoming midterms.
For much of his political career, Trump successfully positioned himself as a champion of the economy, appealing to voters with his business background and promises of economic growth. In 2016, exit polls showed he narrowly defeated Hillary Clinton among voters prioritizing economic issues, a key factor in his initial victory. He maintained this advantage in 2020, breaking even with Joe Biden on the economy and winning over those who ranked it as their top concern. That momentum continued into 2024, when Trump dominated among voters focused on the economy, contributing to his return to the White House and sweeping victories in key swing states.
A Shift in Voter Sentiment
Though, since resuming office, Trump has faced increasing criticism over economic conditions. Persisting dissatisfaction with high costs and a perceived lack of progress on affordability have fueled a turnaround in voter sentiment, empowering Democrats and raising alarm bells within the Republican party. “People are angry about what they’re seeing from this administration. Families are struggling, and Republicans don’t care,” said Representative Suzan DelBene, D-Wash., chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, during a recent appearance on NBC News’ “Meet the Press Now.” “They promised to lower costs on Day 1. It’s been a large broken promise.”
Trump has consistently dismissed unfavorable polls as “fake,” instead pointing to stock market performance as evidence of economic success. Last week, he told reporters, “Our stock market has just recently broken 50,000 on the Dow and simultaneously and even more amazingly broken 7,000 on the S&P.” However, this narrative appears to be falling flat with a significant portion of the electorate. An ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll released Sunday revealed that 41% approve of Trump’s handling of the economy, while 57% disapprove. The same poll showed even lower approval ratings for his handling of tariffs (34%-64%) and inflation (32%-65%).
Republican Strategy and Democratic Opportunity
Republicans are preparing to frame the midterm elections around the argument that they inherited a challenging economic situation from the previous administration and are now implementing policies to improve conditions. National Republican Congressional Committee spokesman Mike Marinella stated that the party is “delivering real relief for the American people” through provisions in what has been dubbed Trump’s “big, lovely bill,” including tax breaks for tipped workers, overtime pay, and senior citizens. However, some Republican strategists privately express concern that simply messaging better won’t be enough, and that voters need to *feel* an economic improvement to shift their support.
Democrats see an opportunity to exploit this vulnerability. The tariffs reinstated by Trump following a Supreme Court ruling invalidating most of his previous tariffs have become a particular point of contention. “Trump is forcing House Republicans to campaign on tax hiking tariffs the rest of the year, despite all evidence that it’s awful politics and everyone hates them,” said Viet Shelton, a spokesperson for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
Beyond the Numbers: Trust and Executive Power
While the polls present a clear challenge, Trump’s political power remains substantial. His administration’s expansive view of executive authority, coupled with continued strong support among GOP voters, limits the immediate impact of the negative economic sentiment. Trump’s allies control both the House and Senate, providing him with significant legislative leverage and limiting the ability of Democrats to effectively challenge his policies. He also maintains a firm grip on the Republican majorities, using the threat of primary challenges to enforce party discipline.
The recent Supreme Court decision striking down most of his tariffs, while a setback, has not deterred Trump. He has since sought to levy new tariffs under a different legal authority, a move that will again require congressional approval. This ongoing battle over trade policy underscores the complex interplay between executive power, judicial review, and legislative oversight.
As President Trump prepares to address the nation, the central question remains: will he attempt to recalibrate his economic message to address voter concerns, or will he continue to tout his administration’s accomplishments and dismiss critical polling data? The answer could have significant implications for the 2026 midterm elections and the future direction of the American economy.
The House and Senate are scheduled to vote on the proposed tariff legislation in early April, providing the next key checkpoint in this ongoing economic and political debate.
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