ukraine Peace Talks “Really Close,” But Kremlin Demands radical Changes to US Proposals
A potential deal to end the war in Ukraine is tantalizingly close, hinging on resolving just two key issues, according to the US president’s outgoing Ukraine envoy. However, the Kremlin has signaled that meaningful alterations to current US proposals are necessary, complicating efforts to achieve a lasting peace.
President Donald Trump, who has publicly expressed his desire to be remembered as a “peacemaker,” has consistently stated that ending the conflict – Europe’s deadliest since World War II – remains a primary, yet elusive, goal of his administration.The current war follows eight years of fighting in the Donbas region between Russian-backed separatists and Ukrainian forces, escalating with Russia’s full-scale invasion in Febuary 2022.
Negotiations Reach Critical Stage
US Special Envoy for Ukraine Keith Kellogg, set to depart his role in January, revealed at the Reagan National Defense Forum that peace efforts are now in “the last few meters.” He emphasized the importance of maintaining pressure on Russia while simultaneously pursuing diplomatic solutions. Kellogg’s assessment was echoed by sources familiar with the negotiations, who indicated that the remaining sticking points revolve around “territorial problems” and security guarantees.
Ushakov, Putin’s top foreign policy aide, confirmed that “territorial problems” were a central topic.
Territorial Disputes and Nuclear Concerns
Kremlin officials have consistently used the term “territorial problems” as shorthand for their claims over the entirety of the Donbas region, despite Ukraine retaining control of approximately 5,000 square kilometers within the area. While nearly all nations recognise Donbas as ukrainian territory, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky has firmly stated that any handover of the remaining Donetsk region would be illegal without a referendum and could provide Russia with a strategic foothold for further aggression.
the Kremlin’s demands extend beyond Donbas. Ushakov indicated that the US would need to make “serious, I would say, radical changes to their papers” regarding Ukraine, though he did not elaborate on the specific modifications Moscow seeks. Zelensky confirmed having a “substantive” phone conversation with Witkoff and Kushner, and the Kremlin anticipates Kushner will lead the drafting of a potential agreement.
Human Cost and Shifting US Strategy
The human toll of the conflict is staggering. Kellogg described the scale of death and injury as “horrific” and unprecedented for a regional war, estimating that over 2 million casualties have been sustained by both Russia and Ukraine combined. Accurate casualty figures remain undisclosed by both governments. Currently, Russia controls 19.2% of Ukraine, including Crimea (annexed in 2014), all of Luhansk, over 80% of Donetsk, and significant portions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, along with smaller areas of other regions.
A leaked set of 28 US draft peace proposals last month sparked concern among Ukrainian and European officials, who argued that the proposals largely conceded to Moscow’s key demands, including Russian control over a fifth of Ukraine and limitations on Ukraine’s military capabilities.
Meanwhile, the Kremlin has welcomed a shift in the Trump administration’s national security strategy, which no longer designates Russia as a “direct threat.” Spokesman Dmitry Peskov described the change as a “positive step,” indicating a willingness to explore limited cooperation on strategic stability issues.This represents a significant departure from previous US strategies that consistently identified Moscow as a major threat, especially following the 2014 annexation of Crimea and the 2022 invasion.
Escalating Attacks and Drone Warfare
despite the ongoing diplomatic efforts, fighting continues. Russian forces launched a combined air strike overnight on infrastructure in Kremenchuk, a central Ukrainian city, causing power and water outages. Mayor Vitalii Maletskyi reported that a full assessment of the damage is underway and that restoration efforts are in progress.Russia has intensified attacks on Ukraine’s critical infrastructure ahead of winter, aiming to disrupt industry and undermine public morale.
Simultaneously, Russia’s defense ministry claimed to have destroyed 77 Ukrainian drones launched overnight, highlighting the escalating use of aerial attacks by both sides in the nearly four-year-old war.The drones were reportedly downed over seven regions in southern and central Russia, as well as over Russian-annexed Crimea.
