The Economy Ministry raised its inflation forecast from 4% to 5.9%, Vedomosti sources said. The indicator was revised as part of the instruction of President Vladimir Putin to clarify the parameters of the socio-economic development forecast. The interlocutor of the newspaper specified that the parameters of the forecast are flexible and depend on the market situation.
The authorities are discussing how much additional funds may be available in addition to the amounts already envisaged in 2022. According to Vedomosti, at the end of the year, excess revenues are expected and it is necessary to assess what resources the authorities have to finance the measures of the future message of the President to the Federal Assembly. It is noted that there may be expenses not provided for in the law on the budget. Among them may be the indexation of government contracts due to rising prices for building materials.
The representative of the Ministry of Economy did not comment on the information of the sources to the newspaper. According to him, the main parameters of the forecast will be presented in April. The representative of the department specified that the dynamics of inflation will depend primarily on rising prices in the world. They can be influenced by the monetary policy of the leading countries, as well as the speed of recovery of supply chains and the situation with the harvest. The Ministry of Finance declined to comment, a representative of the government apparatus did not respond to a request.
Inflationary expectations of the population of the Russian Federation for the coming year fell in January to 13.7% from the December peak over the past five years of 14.8%. Despite this decline, the indicator remains near multi-year highs, and in January its value was 0.2 percentage points higher than in November 2021.
For more details, see Kommersant’s article “Inflation expectations are holding at their highs.”