The shouting conversation between Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and MK Nir Orbach, on Monday morning, ended with an update to Ayelet Shaked: “We have lost control.” Even before that, Auerbach was heard in the Prime Minister’s Office: You are a warrior, but enough. “Bennett did not remain obligated and slammed:” Only because of you is it over. “
In contrast to Silman’s retirement, which was fully coordinated with the Likud, this time Auerbach received nothing in return. This is because he is interested in maintaining an ideological appearance in his actions, which in fact brings the end of Bennett’s short reign closer.
Orbach and Bennett have high mileage together. It is not by chance that the right is still having a hard time digesting the step taken by Auerbach and others think that he will repeat it if the right conditions are created. Meanwhile, Shaked, the one who was supposed to be coordinated with Auerbach at every step, was left almost alone in her absolute loyalty to the prime minister.
In the background, of course, is the disintegration of the Bennett Chamber. The government said this week that Gan Zvi was ahead of Prime Minister Shalom Shlomo, who also decided he could no longer, but was forced to remain in the system in the face of the impressive wave of departures. Shlomo will reach another crossroads in the coming weeks and will have to decide whether to leave the sinking ship while he is still standing on the deck, or escape swimming at the last minute.
The substantive test will be the Judiciary Regulations
The most likely scenario currently on the table is to dissolve the Knesset and go to the polls. This scenario begins with the passage of the Knesset Dispersal Law in a preliminary reading, next week or the following. This law does not require a majority of 61 MKs but a relative majority and therefore, it is enough that Orbach continues to boycott the plenum and the law passes through the fingers of opposition members and Silman. As chairman of the Knesset committee, Auerbach will be able to control the timing of the committee’s approval of the law and its return to the plenum.
The substantive test was, and remains, the Judea and Samaria Regulations Act. While Meretz intends to support the law to ensure the survival of the government, Arab MKs continue to stubbornly oppose its support. Which announced that it would oppose the law and also the provisioning procedure of MK Mazen Ghanaim is not progressing as expected.
Ghanaim demands guarantees from the coalition for his election as mayor of Sakhnin, and among other things, the possibility has arisen that he will run as a representative and have a future and thus also receive funding. The political system claims that such a proposal has indeed come up on behalf of Yesh Atid, but the party denies and claims that Ghanaim demanded and did not accept. Either way, the affair of Ghanaians alone will not be enough to pass the law.
If the law does not pass by the end of June, some of the legal arrangements that allow the lives of half a million Israelis in Judea and Samaria will be repealed. This is a dramatic impact on the ground, but no less – it is an ideological failure of the right-wing government members. In the face of such a scorching failure, Auerbach will be required to take further steps and so will Saar, who himself has said several times: a coalition that cannot pass this law – will not be able to exist.
If that’s not enough, Orbach’s entourage mentioned another condition – the coalition’s failure to rely on the joint list. But in practice, a coalition of only 60 MKs has no ability to advance laws other than by negotiating with the joint list. Apparently, Monday’s agenda in the Knesset was deleted after the joint announced that it would vote uniformly with the position of the other opposition factions. Therefore, Auerbach’s friends claim – even if miraculously Zoabi and Ghanaim resign, Auerbach will not back down from the steps he took to disband the government.
Although the coalition believes that the joint list will not support the dissolution of the Knesset, those who saw the faction members this week accept Orbach’s message with satisfaction, understand that the picture is slightly different. Ra’am chairman Mansour Abbas robbed them of the premiere for a year, managed the list of achievements for the Arab public in their place, and even demanded that they be deprived of any solemn status on previous issues. Elections, it is hoped, will be a declaration that Abbas’ integration attempt has failed and they will return to being the negotiators on behalf of the sector in front of any government that is formed, including Netanyahu’s.
Try to pass the time until the July break
To what extent is the election scenario present? Talks were held in the Knesset this week on several fronts in favor of recruiting candidates for MK Amichai Shikli’s list. ?
Another scenario, slightly more optimistic in terms of the coalition, goes through daily survival in the Knesset until the recess at the end of July. If Bennett finally manages to persuade Orbach to return to the right, even though the Judea and Samaria Regulations Law will fall, the coalition will have to suffer six weeks of losses in the plenum, without government legislation and without budget discussions of course.
This scenario has few partners on the right, there is a future, Labor and Meretz. This is a process of stabilizing the coalition that goes through the retirement of two Arab MKs, the return of Michael Bitton to a vote with the coalition and the absence of other crises. All partners will have to make a conscious decision to survive without functioning.
If it is agreed that a law will not be passed to dissolve the Knesset, the Knesset can skip from week to week until the end of the session. With the return in the winter, and in the absence of a budget, it will only be a matter of time until the dissolution of the Knesset.
Who will be the prime minister of the transition?
Lawyers who examined the wording of the coalition agreements and the Basic Law of the Government came to the following conclusion: If an equal number of MKs from Gush Bennett and Lapid vote to dissolve the Knesset – Bennett will be the transitional prime minister. In favor of dissolving the Knesset, Lapid will march to the Prime Minister’s Office until another government is elected.
This is the real struggle between Bennett and Lapid. Bish Atid said this week that Lapid has so far used the method of “concessions”, but will fight for his entry into the Prime Minister’s Office. Lapid will do everything in his power to persuade the MKs in his bloc not to participate in the vote to dissolve the Knesset and that there is no real chance of a Netanyahu-led government being formed in this Knesset. .
The opposition estimates that there is 50% in the elections and 50% in the scenario of forming a government headed by Netanyahu in this Knesset. Orbach, Netanyahu’s partners – Gafni, Deri and Smutrich – and parts of the Likud are striving for that. But the final decision will be with Netanyahu and later will be brought to the door of Saar or to the door of parts of a new hope. They desperately see the polls and will have to decide whether to save their careers before going to the polls.