If the presidential election on April 10, 2022 were all about Emmanuel Macron’s economic record, he could count on a sure confirmation. In contrast to Germany, an acute economic decline was forecast for France after the start of the corona pandemic, and in fact the country is already back to pre-crisis levels. The feared wave of company bankruptcies did not materialize, but is at best a regional problem. Macron attributes this with a certain right to his policies – especially the introduction of short-time work benefits. Despite considerable criticism from trade unions, this labor law reform is having positive effects. The level of employment in France is higher than it has been for a long time, which is also due to a significant increase in the number of training contracts. The unemployment rate has fallen from 9.5 to 7.4 percent since Macron took office in May 2017. Since then, the relationship between employers and trade unions has relaxed noticeably, if not as a social partnership based on the German model, also because moderate tones ultimately became louder and more influential.
Neither right nor left
The new regulations for dismissals and the addition of severance payments for workers and employees have contributed to the relaxation. Of course, France’s lack of a downturn during the pandemic has come at a price. In the past two years, national debt has increased by 600 billion euros, so that the burden of liabilities in relation to annual economic output is now 116 percent. In other words, the gross domestic product in 2021 is not enough to wipe them out. There are reasons for this, because campaign promises from the 2017 campaign that were controversial from the start, such as the intention to cut 120,000 jobs in the civil service, have now been dropped without a murmur. Likewise the tax and pension reform.
Although Macron is very likely to assert himself as president, the side effects could be more than delicate. The majority of the incumbent, which owes its existence to the maxim “neither right nor left”, is extraordinarily fragile. The leitmotif mobilizes barely a third of those eligible to vote, which is alarming news for democracy, and even more so for its stability. The candidacy of the openly right-wing radical Éric Zemmour (poll value 13 percent), who is only unable to win a majority as long as he competes with the nationalist Marine Le Pen (17 percent) from the Rassemblement National (RN) instead of cooperating, thus dividing the voices of the national right , leads to a conjecture that is not very edifying for Macron: A united front of nationalists, right-wing extremists and conservatives would very likely be the sure winner over the political center and a hopelessly divided left in the 2022 elections. These formations can only pray that France is spared such a unit that could push it to the point of initiating a swift end to the European Union.
Valérie Pécresse, candidate for president of the conservative Les Républicains, is up against dissidents in her own ranks, including former ministers and supporters of ex-President Nicolas Sarkozy such as Eric Woerth, Emmanuelle Mignon and Christian Estrosi. You have declared that you want to vote for Macron instead of Pécresse, whose statements on refugees, Islam and the headscarf have come too close to Zemmour’s campaign slogan of the “major population exchange”. After Pécresse was repeatedly outspoken in using right-wing slogans at her election meetings, a rift developed in the conservative camp. Once again, doubts are growing about their democratic stability.
In terms of effect, the Republican top candidate runs the political business of Zemmour, who would like it if the boundaries between moderate conservatives and right-wing nationalists continued to disappear. Emmanuel Macron would be blindsided if, under these circumstances, he were to celebrate an election victory as a triumph and ignore the fact that well-known right-wing politicians have meanwhile become apologists for a right-wing extremist like Zemmour.
Of course, the war in Ukraine is having an impact on the final phase of the election campaign, but much less than one would assume given the magnitude of the event, apart from impressive demonstrations in several cities. In the week when the war began, the National Assembly was more concerned with the withdrawal of French units from Mali than with the advance of the Russian army in the Ukraine. Macron himself initially remained cautious, which some politicians took as an opportunity to work through the contrast between Macron’s fruitless crisis diplomacy in the run-up to the invasion and the lack of results. Mockery and sarcasm were aimed at US President Joe Biden’s “telephone assistant”.
consensus on sanctions
The Elysée vehemently disagreed with the accusation that Macron’s mediation had failed, and referred to the increased popularity ratings that the president was enjoying thanks to his courageous interventions. Election campaigner Marine Le Pen and presidential candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon, chairman of the left-wing socialist party La France Insoumise, were caught cold by the Ukraine drama. Both Le Pen and Mélenchon are rightly said to have a certain closeness to, or even sympathy for, Vladimir Putin, which in the current situation causes both of them considerable embarrassment and the need for an explanation.
To everyone’s surprise, Prime Minister Jean Castex invited all presidential candidates to an “information session” on March 1 with the foreign and defense ministers and the chief of staff. His justification for such a meeting was that unity was now required across camp boundaries. What Castex took away was a general consensus on EU sanctions against Russia. More details on the desired truce will be announced later.