“Without military and humanitarian aid from the EU and the US, the Ukrainian counteroffensive will likely retreat”

2024-02-02 01:09:06

Why has Orban been blocking this financial aid package?

Viktor Orban had been blocking €50 billion of aid to Ukraine, mainly while the European Union (EU), in turn, blocked €6.3 billion of cohesion funds for Hungary due to rule of law concerns. Orban, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s closest ally in the EU, had said he wanted to force a rethink of the bloc’s policy toward Ukraine and questioned the idea of ​​committing funds to Kyiv over the next four years. The EU unblocked funding for Hungary so that the Hungarian Prime Minister would withdraw his objections to aid to Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky welcomed the new financing and said it would strengthen the country’s economic and financial stability. He also sends a signal to Putin that Ukraine is in a reasonably stable economic situation for the moment.

Do you think that without financial aid from the United States, blocked in Congress, Ukraine is doomed to lose the war?

Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the Biden Administration has committed more than $70 billion in assistance to Ukraine, including $44.2 billion in security assistance, $22.9 billion in direct budget support, and $2.8 billion in humanitarian assistance. On October 20, 2023, the Administration submitted to Congress a new request for $106 billion in fiscal year 2024 emergency supplemental funding for Ukraine, Israel, border security, and other purposes. About $61 billion of the financing went to Ukraine. The request remains under consideration in Congress and has been blocked by hardline Republicans, who believe funds for Ukraine should be diverted to U.S. border security. They also believe that European allies in NATO should take on more economic and military burdens by supporting Ukraine. For them, it’s about sharing the load. This is also the opinion of Donald Trump, the likely Republican candidate in the November 2024 presidential election. The Biden Administration is struggling to get Congress to approve the funding. This is a problem. The Government hopes that Ukraine can maintain its front in the war. This in the context of the stagnation of Ukraine’s spring and summer offensive starting in 2023. Without considerable military and humanitarian aid from the EU and the US, the Ukrainian counteroffensive will likely retreat. It doesn’t necessarily mean Ukraine loses the war, but it likely means a stalemate in the eastern regions, in particular, where Russian troops have been since 2014.

Should Germany supply long-range Taurus missiles, since the UK and France have sent their Storm Shadow and Scalp missiles?

The United Kingdom has made a proposal to Germany. London has suggested that Berlin could supply Taurus cruise missiles to the UK Army in exchange for the UK providing its own long-range Storm Shadow missiles to Ukraine, which the Ukrainian Air Force has already deployed. Chancellor Scholz is currently considering this proposal after it was rejected by the Bundestag, the lower house of the German Parliament. Scholz is concerned that deploying his own Taurus missiles in Ukraine could be dangerous, as they have a range of 500 kilometers and could be used by Ukraine to attack Russian cities. Scholz is also concerned that if German Taurus missiles were captured by Russian forces, this would reveal how they operate and could be copied; Germany wants to continue using the missiles well into the 2050s and this is also a factor. The British proposal has broad support in Germany (including from the opposition CDU Christian Democrats) and this gives Berlin additional options on whether to deploy missiles in Ukraine.

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