The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on the 21st (local time) that civil airliners passing through the Middle East are at risk after the outbreak of war in the Gaza Strip in October last year.
According to a WSJ report and an aviation safety evaluation company, Austrian Aviation Solutions, the number of missiles detected over the Middle East this year was an average of 162 per month, an increase of more than 16 times compared to the monthly average of 10 last year.
In particular, this figure was calculated based on ballistic and cruise missiles, so if rockets, mortars, cannons, and drones are included, the total number of projectiles is estimated to be much higher.
In fact, last month, a passenger on an Emirates Airlines flight from Amsterdam, Netherlands to Dubai, United Arab Emirates (UAE) posted a video on social networking services (SNS) and asked, “Are those like fireworks?” However, what he saw was a swarm of Iranian missiles flying toward Israel.
WSJ explained this by saying, “This passenger watched a swarm of Iranian missiles raining down on Israel through the cabin window,” adding, “It is an example of how dangerous commercial flights are in some skies as the conflict in the Middle East intensifies.” did it
Likewise, concerns are being raised about missiles flying close to civilian aircraft. Ballistic missiles move at much higher altitudes than civil aircraft, but they can cause serious accidents as they soar into the sky and as they descend toward their targets. Cruise missiles flying at low altitudes can cause problems during takeoff and landing of aircraft.
If the air defence system mistakes a civilian aircraft for a missile, it could lead to a catastrophe. In fact, in 2014, Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 was shot down by a Russian missile over eastern Ukraine. All 298 passengers and crew died in this accident. In 2020, Ukrainian Airlines flight PS752 was shot down by the Iranian military in the sky near Tehran, Iran, killing all 176 people on board.
However, the airspace control measures of governments in the Middle East are not being implemented properly. On the 1st of last month, during the Iranian airstrike on Israel, many flights passed over Iraq, Jordan, Syria, and northern Saudi Arabia between Iran and Israel without changing their routes. Even during Israel’s retaliatory air strike against Iran on the 26th of the same month, aircraft continued to operate in this area.
“National security and foreign policy take precedence over aviation safety, and this happens repeatedly in conflict zones,” said Matt Bori, chief information officer (CIO) of Austrian Aviation Solutions. The European Pilots Association (ECA) pointed out that some airlines are forcing pilots to fly on dangerous routes that they do not agree to.
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How can international cooperation improve aviation safety in conflict zones?
Interview: The Risks Facing Civil Aviation in the Middle East
Interviewer: Alex Rivera, Editor of Time.news
Expert Guest: Matt Bori, Chief Information Officer at Austrian Aviation Solutions
Alex Rivera: Welcome, Matt. Thank you for joining us today. The recent reports from The Wall Street Journal have raised alarming concerns about the safety of civil airliners navigating the skies over the Middle East. Can you give us an overview of the current situation?
Matt Bori: Thank you for having me, Alex. Yes, the situation is quite concerning. Since the outbreak of war in the Gaza Strip last October, we’ve seen a drastic increase in missile activity in the region. To put things in perspective, the number of detected missiles has surged to an average of 162 per month this year, compared to just 10 a month last year. This data encompasses both ballistic and cruise missiles, and if we factor in rockets, mortars, and drones, the threat level is even higher.
Alex Rivera: That’s a staggering statistic. It sounds like the danger isn’t just theoretical — it has real implications for passengers on commercial flights. Can you explain how these missiles pose a risk to civilian aircraft?
Matt Bori: Absolutely. While ballistic missiles typically fly at higher altitudes than commercial airlines, they can still create dangerous scenarios during their ascent and descent. Cruise missiles, on the other hand, fly at lower altitudes, which means they pose a greater risk, particularly during critical phases of flight like takeoff and landing. The risk is particularly acute if an air defense system mistakenly targets a civilian aircraft as a missile, which could lead to catastrophic outcomes.
Alex Rivera: We’ve seen tragic examples of this in the past, such as the downing of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 and Ukrainian Airlines flight PS752. What measures are currently in place to protect civilian aircraft in these conflict zones?
Matt Bori: Unfortunately, the current airspace control measures in the Middle East are insufficient. During the Iranian airstrike on Israel just last month, many flights continued to operate over Iraq, Jordan, Syria, and northern Saudi Arabia without altering their routes. This disregard for aviation safety is alarming, especially when national security concerns tend to overshadow the safety of civil aviation.
Alex Rivera: It seems like a prioritization of military objectives over civilian safety. What do you believe needs to happen for the airspace over conflict zones to be deemed safe for commercial flights again?
Matt Bori: There needs to be a fundamental shift in how governments prioritize aviation safety in conflict zones. Enhanced coordination among nations, strict enforcement of no-fly zones in high-risk areas, and clear communication protocols are essential. The industry must advocate for greater accountability regarding airspace management in conflict regions to prevent unnecessary tragedies.
Alex Rivera: That sounds like a monumental task, especially given the geopolitics at play. In the meantime, what recommendations would you give to airlines and pilots operating in these regions?
Matt Bori: Airlines and pilots should be equipped with robust risk assessment tools and real-time intelligence about potential threats. This includes adhering to updated flight paths that avoid conflict areas when necessary and staying informed of any changes in airspace regulations. Training for pilots on emergency procedures in conflict zones is also crucial to improve response times should a situation arise.
Alex Rivera: Thank you, Matt. That gives us a lot to think about. The safety of passengers depends not just on airline protocols but also on international cooperation and commitment to civil aviation standards. We appreciate your insights on this critical issue.
Matt Bori: Thank you, Alex. It’s been a pleasure discussing these vital matters with you.
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Alex Rivera: That wraps up our interview. Stay tuned for more updates as aviation safety continues to evolve in the face of global challenges.