2024-10-07 15:18:00
JD Vance and Tim Walz They could be the pieces that tip the balance in US close elections.
General overview. Last Tuesday’s vice presidential debate shocked the world. After eight years of adversarial presidential debates — whose main argument was confrontation — the face-off between Vance and Walz reminded American voters of a more hearty type of debate focused on public policy.
Vance was able to separate himself from the caricatured image that the traditional media had painted of the Republican.
Walz, for his part, defied the expectations created by the conservative media of what he believed to be limited intellectual ability.
Both candidates did their incumbents a big favor, but the Republicans were the big winners.
Why is it important? JD Vance did not appear to be a vice presidential candidate who was thinking of mobilizing votes for Trump. He is a young politician, with only two years of experience in Washington, and is not a native of any of the states that are holding purse strings for this election. More than an electoral stake, Trump and his inner circle have chosen who represents the succession of Trumpism for the years after Trump himself.
Vance had his first national speaker to show that the future of the Republican Party can include the political project of former President Trump, but not his confrontational and aggressive nature.
The vice-presidential candidate of the Republic showed preparation and tried to position the MAGA trend as common sense politics.
Although voting intention polls remain the same as before the debate, Trump again surpassed Harris in his odds of victory in the betting market for the first time since September 17.
Visible and invisible. Historically, vice-presidential debates have had little or no impact on the outcome of US elections, however, a decision could be made this November 5th with approximately 100,000 votes across 7 swing states. Post-debate polls are just as tight as voting intention polls. Most give Vance the winner, but the margin is slim. The debate does not seem to have had any major impact on the electorate’s decision.
Walz will not be involved in the Harris campaign, but avoiding a nationally televised debacle was crucial to not damaging her. For the Democrats, nothing changes. The situation could be different for Republicans.
However short-lived the impact of the debate may be, in the current situation, it could be decisive in the minds of many Republicans who do not particularly support Trump.
Vance also spoke into the ear of donors who support the party but fear Trump. His run can encourage more financial support for a Republican party that is widely outpacing Democrats in fundraising.
Finally. The choice remains in play. Everything seems to indicate that, because Republic It has been said time and time again, victory will essentially depend on Pennsylvania, the most contested and unpredictable state for the November elections.
It seems that the Republicans got the second wind that they had not achieved since Joe Biden left the race.
Trump now has the support of important figures of the American liberal wing in Robert Kennedy Jr. and Tulsi Gabbard, as well as a comfortable figure as a pairing partner. It reduces the weight of panic over a radical government
The race is at its peak, with Hurricane Helen affecting key states and a vice presidential debate that, for the first time in years, could define a significant portion of the undecided vote in the US.
#Vance #wild #card #Trump #revived