In just eight days, USA will open a new chapter in his political-electoral life. Kamala Harris, of the Democratic Party, and Donald Trump, of the Republican Party, will compete for the White House in the elections on November 5. With 36.2 million Hispanics residing in the country, their vote could be crucial, especially given the narrow difference that the polls mark between both candidates.
Ethnicity
The Latino vote represents more than 15 percent of the total number of Americans who will be able to participate in the election. According to the available voter registration data, this is a universe of 186.5 million citizens. Among races and ethnicities, it is estimated that African Americans represent 34 million 450 thousand, while the Asian community represents 15 million voters.
The internationalist Norma Soto Castañeda considered that even with the controversial message about Mexico and the immigration policies, Donald Trump has considerable Latino support. While Kamala Harris He has a track record in social programs to support Latinos, which gives him an advantage over Trump.
However, the specialist recognized that Harris arrives with a disadvantage in political marketing, given that just a few months ago she was designated as a candidate after Joe Biden’s withdrawal.
Votes
Miguel Alejandro Híjar Chiapa, research professor at the CUCS Center for North American Studies, highlighted in an interview for El Debate that the 36 million Latinos in the electoral roll, could be decisive for Kamala Harris o Donald Trump, especially in key states such as California, Florida, Texas, Arizona and Nevada.
Híjar Chiapa analyzed that the Latino vote is not a monolithic bloc, but varies according to state, nationality and social class. As an example, he pointed to Florida, where he stated that Latinos tend to favor the Republican Party, influenced by a negative perception of the left, which they associate with communism, especially due to the political history of Cuba and the Castro regime.
Left party?
Many people see the Democratic Party as a left-wing party, although by Latin American parameters in general it would be a center, center-right party, or at least most of its central figures, he noted.
For his part, Jesús Gallegos Olivera, internationalist from UNAM, added that there are not only Latinos who vote Republican or Democrat, but also those who already participate in other electoral preferences, local parties such as the Libertarian Party, the Green Party, etc
It should also be noted that the number of people who, for various reasons, abstain from this political-electoral exercise and who do not offer an active status has grown, he indicated.
inclination
In his analysis, the specialist detailed that this vote has evolved from being oriented towards liberally progressive proposals that offered protection of labor and social guarantees, to a participation that could be considered center-right, a more pro-conservative condition. , where some states such as Florida, Arizona or Texas are already located.
Norma Soto Castañeda added that an advantage of the American electoral system is that citizens can request ballots before the elections and cast their vote without complications. This makes it easier for many Latinos to show their support for candidates o political groups.
Above all, those who already have children are looking for different alternatives. He indicated that small universities have emerged designed specifically for children of migrants and children born in the country.
These institutions offer multiple alternatives and have created special budgets to support Latino students, migrants, and minors who depend on their parents.
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Interview Transcript: Time.News Editor (T) and Miguel Alejandro Híjar Chiapa, Research Professor at CUCS Center for North American Studies (M)
T: Good day, Miguel. With the elections just around the corner, the stakes are incredibly high, especially with such a significant demographic as the Latino population. How do you view the current landscape heading into November 5th?
M: Good day! Indeed, the Latino vote—over 36 million strong—could very well tip the scales in this election. Both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have tailored their campaigns to appeal to this crucial demographic. It’s fascinating because the polls indicate a very narrow margin between the candidates.
T: That’s right! It’s estimated that Latinos represent more than 15% of eligible voters. How do you see that demographic shaping up across various states?
M: It’s important to note that the Latino vote isn’t a monolith. Its composition varies widely based on state, nationality, and even social class. For example, in Florida, many Latinos historically lean Republican, largely due to the Cuban community’s experiences with communism and communism’s negative portrayal of left-wing politics.
T: That’s intriguing. Given the different histories and experiences within the Latino community, how do you think that affects their voting patterns nationally?
M: Absolutely, the historical context matters greatly. Many people perceive the Democratic Party as left-leaning, but, contrasting with Latin American standards, it would more accurately be categorized as center or center-right. This perception can complicate the narrative around Latino voters, some of whom might feel more aligned with local parties like the Libertarian or Green parties rather than the traditional two-party system.
T: With the divisiveness that often characterizes American elections, do you notice a growing segment of Latinos opting out of the electoral process altogether?
M: Yes, there is a concerning trend of voter abstention. Various factors contribute to this—disillusionment with the major parties, a lack of appealing candidates, or simply feeling disenfranchised. As a political scientist, I find those abstentions disheartening, especially since there are many progressive voices in the community yearning for representation.
T: Given Kamala Harris’s track record in supporting social programs for Latinos, do you think she has the upper hand among Latino voters, despite possible disadvantages in political marketing?
M: Kamala Harris does have inherent advantages due to her social programs aimed at supporting Latino communities. However, her late designation as the candidate following Biden’s withdrawal might hinder her momentum. Her campaign must effectively articulate how her policies will directly benefit Latinx communities, particularly in states where they have a significant voting presence.
T: And on the other hand, Donald Trump maintains a considerable Latino support base despite his controversial immigration policies. How do you interpret that?
M: It’s perplexing but not surprising. Some Latino voters appreciate his business acumen and policies that they believe contribute to the economy, overriding their concerns about immigration rhetoric. This complex interplay shows how socioeconomic factors can sometimes take precedence over social issues.
T: Lastly, as we approach the elections, how do you see the structure of the American electoral system favoring Latino participation?
M: The ability to request ballots ahead of election day is a significant advantage. It allows many Latinos, especially those working multiple jobs or with family obligations, to engage with the electoral process more easily. Continued efforts to educate and mobilize this voting population could prove crucial in the upcoming elections.
T: Thank you, Miguel, for your insightful observations. It’s clear that the nuanced dynamics within the Latino voting bloc will play a pivotal role in shaping this political moment.
M: Thank you for having me. I look forward to seeing how these factors play out. It’s an exciting, albeit precarious time for our democracy.
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This interview highlights the complexity of Latino voting behavior and underscores the potential influence this demographic could wield in the elections.