President Donald Trump insisted on August 12, 2026, that the United States maintains total control over the Strait of Hormuz amid falling transit numbers and stalled regional peace talks. The assertion clashes with maritime analytics and regional capability reports, as global crude prices remain elevated above $89 per barrel.
President Donald Trump doubled down on claims that Washington exercises unwavering dominance over the vital Middle Eastern waterway, even as maritime traffic plummeted to a fraction of its pre-war volume. Writing on social media, the president declared that the U.S.A. has total control over the Strait of Hormuz and asserted that his administration would maintain its grip on the passage.
The rhetoric comes as negotiations aimed at fully reopening the corridor remain deadlocked following months of conflict. Before the outbreak of hostilities between the U.S., Israel, and Iran on February 28, approximately one-fifth of global oil and LNG flows passed through the strait. Today, the physical reality on the water tells a starkly different story from the administration’s public declarations.
Disputed Control and Plummeting Transit Numbers
Trade analytics platform data cited by international news agencies revealed that just eight cargo vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday. That figure represents a severe drop from the pre-war rate of 130 to 140 ships daily and falls well below the previous ten-day average of about 12 vessels.
While ships continue to navigate the corridor, they face severe obstacles and heightened military threats. A U.S. Navy military helicopter struck a Panama-flagged cargo vessel on Tuesday, while separate attacks in the region underscore the ongoing peril. Notably, the Yemen-based Houthis opened a new front with strikes in the Bab al-Mandab Strait, resulting in six deaths during an attack on an Egyptian-owned ship.
Trump maintained that the American naval presence operates as an infallible barrier.
The only one that has control of the Strait of Hormuz right now is the United States Navy. We have a blockade that’s been infallible—it’s a steel wall… We control the Strait, 100%.
President Donald Trump, via Rapid Response 47
Regional experts reject that assessment. Dennis Citrinowicz, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies, wrote on social media that the administration’s insistence on winning at all costs creates a virtual reality detached from conditions on the ground. The United States does not control the Strait of Hormuz, Citrinowicz stated, adding that Iran retains sufficient capabilities to disrupt maritime traffic.
That view found support from former U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman, who told Bloomberg TV that Iran will control the Strait of Hormuz for the foreseeable future unless Washington offers major concessions on sanctions and frozen assets.
Stalled Diplomacy and Competing Energy Claims
Diplomatic channels have shifted outside Washington’s direct oversight. While broader peace talks remain paused, Iran has pursued separate discussions with Oman regarding future management of the waterway. Mohsen Rezaee, newly appointed secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, stated that any agreement with Oman regarding control of the strait would remain separate from a full reopening. According to state-run IRIB, Tehran demands that Washington end the war, lift naval blockades, and unfreeze blocked Iranian assets before full traffic resumes.
Mediators from Pakistan and Qatar continue efforts to broker an arrangement. Pakistani Foreign Ministry spokesperson Tahir Andrabi reported that Islamabad is working to bring parties back to the negotiating table, following diplomatic visits to Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait. Meanwhile, Mohsen Rezaee met with China’s ambassador to Iran, Cong Peiwu, in Tehran to discuss regional security.
Disagreements also extend to the volume of fossil fuel leaving the region. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright posted on social media that the seven-day average for oil leaving the strait reached almost 9 million barrels per day, approaching pre-war levels when combined with land delivery infrastructure.
Energy analysts quickly challenged that figure. Brett Erickson, an analyst at Obsidian Risk Advisors, stated there is zero evidence that 9Mbpd is exiting the Strait of Hormuz per day. Amid the conflicting claims, global benchmark Brent crude traded slightly higher at just over $89 per barrel in London, extending a six-day rally as traders brace for prolonged uncertainty.
Military Realignment and Political Pressures
Tehran has signaled a harder military posture alongside its stalled diplomacy. Mohammad Reza Naqdi, an adviser to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander, told state TV that recent top-level appointments by Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei mark a shift toward an offensive doctrine. Naqdi noted that Iran’s armed forces must now be capable of taking operations into enemy territory when conditions are favorable, moving away from a strictly defensive posture.
In Washington, the protracted conflict carries heavy domestic political weight as the nation approaches midterm elections in November. Analysts note that the administration’s optimistic framing is designed to project strength to voters, even as the core objectives of ending Iran’s nuclear program and driving regime change remain unfulfilled.
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