The developing El Niño weather phenomenon across the Pacific Ocean is projected to become the strongest in living memory, with international weather services warning that the extreme ocean warming will likely push 2027 to surpass 2024 as the hottest year on record globally.
A dramatic surge in equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperatures is steering the planet toward an unprecedented climate event. Periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific caused by weakening trade winds typically drives El Niño cycles every two to seven years, and tends to last between nine and 12 months, but the current phenomenon is vastly outpacing recent historical experience. According to the United Kingdom Met Office, sea-surface temperatures in a key region of the Pacific are expected to climb beyond a 3°C anomaly later this year, dwarfing the typical 1°C to 2°C rise (with 2°C considered a major event) and far exceeding recent records.
The year 2026 was going to be renowned for the development of the largest El Nino in living memory and what was probably the largest such event since the 19th century, the Met Office said. Their latest forecasts showed a more than 3C rise in equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperatures later in 2026. The Met Office said 2027 was very likely to replace 2024 as the warmest year on record.
Beneath the surface, warm water reservoirs are already intensifying the cycle.
“This implies that if the forecast is accurate – and other forecast systems show similar extreme values – then 2026 will far exceed our recent experience of El Nino and its worldwide climate influences,”
Subsurface Heat Reserves and Global Weather Disruption
The sheer magnitude of the event stems from an enormous reservoir of heat stored beneath the ocean surface. Unusually warm water deep beneath the Pacific could further strengthen the event, with temperatures at depths of around 100 metres already about 8°C above normal in some areas, providing a large reservoir of heat that could fuel El Niño in the months ahead. Sea surface temperatures in a key region of the Pacific are currently more than 2°C above average, and Met Office forecasts suggest they could rise beyond 3°C as the event reaches its peak later this year — a level not seen in records dating back to 1950.
Far-reaching consequences are already registering across continents. In South Asia, India’s southwest monsoon has recorded below-average rainfall as weather patterns respond to the shift, although El Niño is only one of several factors that influence India’s rainfall. Meanwhile, hurricane activity in the Atlantic Ocean has been suppressed, with the phenomenon also potentially bringing a wetter and stormier autumn to the UK and parts of north-west Europe.
Regional Risks Across Southern Africa and Australia
The South African Weather Service (SAWS) has released an official statement confirming that a strong El Niño event has formed in the Pacific Ocean, and it’s on track to intensify significantly this spring. According to SAWS, the latest sea surface temperature readings in the eastern central tropical Pacific are already exceeding the threshold used to define a very strong event, and current forecasts indicate the event will very likely exceed the 3°C anomaly threshold, a level the weather service links to becoming the strongest event in living memory.
SAWS classifies El Niño strength using sea surface temperature anomalies over a three-month average, where a strong event is one where that anomaly exceeds 1.5°C above climatology, while a very strong event sees the ocean run 2°C warmer than normal. Historically, most El Niño events bring below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures to southern Africa, with SAWS pointing to the 1982/83 and 2015/16 events as the two most damaging for the region, both linked to widespread drought. However, the weather service is careful to note that not every El Niño follows that pattern, as the very strong 1997/98 event was actually associated with slightly above-normal rainfall over parts of South Africa’s summer rainfall region.
For October to December 2026, SAWS’s seasonal forecast points to below-normal rainfall as the most likely outcome across most of South Africa, alongside above-normal temperatures. Looking further ahead, the outlook for November 2026 to January 2027 follows a similar pattern, with drier and warmer conditions expected to dominate most of the country. If the 2026/27 El Niño does bring severe drought conditions, SAWS warns that a high frequency of heatwaves is likely to accompany it, with the potential to become severe. Combined with the effects of global warming, SAWS flagged a longer-term consequence that this El Niño could help make 2027 the warmest year ever recorded, echoing what happened after the 2015/16 event, which brought a run of unprecedented heatwaves to the region.
Economic Pressures and Food Security Concerns
Parts of northern South America and Australia could face a greater risk of drought and wildfires, while Peru, Ecuador and the southern United States could see increased flood risks. The disruption can also have economic consequences, as previous El Niño events have affected crops including coffee, rice and cocoa, pushing up food prices and causing losses across global supply chains. A dramatic rise in Pacific sea-surface temperatures could harm crops around the world, threatening crops globally.
The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organisation is among the international bodies monitoring the unfolding impacts across developing regions.
Tracking the Path Toward Record Global Temperatures
Added to the effects of human-induced climate change, the Met Office is warning that it is “very likely” to mean 2027 is the hottest year on record globally. There is no clear evidence that climate change is making El Niño events more likely, but its weather impacts are likely to be more extreme in a warming world.
