2023-05-21 06:58:31
France must “coming out of denial” and prepare for a global warming of 4°C by the end of the century. This is the call, for several months, of the Minister of Ecological Transition, Christophe Béchu. The government has decided to open a public consultation on Tuesday, May 23, on this hypothesis and its consequences for the population, economic sectors and local authorities.
While the impacts of climate change are already evident in France and will worsen, the ministry wishes to define a reference trajectory for adaptation to global warming, which will serve as a basis for future policies and will make it possible to strengthen them. This discussion should contribute to the update of the next National Plan for Adaptation to Climate Change (PNACC), which should be published at the end of the year.
In a document of about twenty pages, accompanied by three questions, the ministry proposes two scenarios – at + 2°C and + 4°C. It suggests retaining, under the reference warming trajectory, the one considered to be the most “pessimistic”. The first is based on compliance with the Paris climate agreement, which aims to limit global warming to well below 2°C compared to the pre-industrial era, and if possible to contain it to 1.5° vs.
“But the global slope on which we are is not the respect of the Paris agreement”, recalls Mr. Béchu. The planet is on a trajectory of +2.4°C to +2.6°C at the end of the century, if the States’ climate commitments, made for 2030, are kept, or even +2.8° C if current policies are continued, according to the latest report of the United Nations Environment Programme, published in October 2022. And global emissions are increasing year after year.
The second scenario therefore assumes a global warming of 3°C, which would amount to a rise in mercury of 4°C in mainland France. Europe is experiencing more marked warming than the global average, with the rise in temperature being more pronounced for the land than for the oceans. The territory is the continent that has warmed the most (with the exception of the Arctic). France has thus already gained +1.7°C since the pre-industrial era, against +1.2°C for the entire globe.
“4°C is not pessimistic”
The government proposes to gradually adapt to a level of global warming of 1.5°C in 2030, 2°C in 2050 and 3°C in 2100, compared to the pre-industrial era, i.e. a level of warming in France metropolitan area of 2°C in 2030, 2.7°C in 2050 and 4°C in 2100. It identifies three major projects – updating standards, benchmarks and technical regulations in all areas, adaptation of local authorities , and that of the economic sectors (agriculture, tourism, etc.) – and asks about the tools and support needed, so that the sectors continue to operate despite the high temperatures, the lack of water or the extreme rains.
You have 65.02% of this article left to read. The following is for subscribers only.
#consultation #launched #prepare #France #rise