2024-10-07 12:55:14
How to increase a tax without it being very visible and above all relatively painless for those who suffer it? The technicians of the Ministry of Economy may have found the martingale, with the internal tax on final consumption of electricity (TICFE), today also called “excise duty on electricity”. Explanations.
On 1 February 2022, in the midst of the energy crisis, the government decided to establish a tariff shield, lowering the TICFE to the lowest level allowed by the European texts, thus going from €32.06/MWh for families to €1/ MWh, reducing the price shield. “In total, the state covered 37% of electricity bills,” we explained then to Bercy.
With the gradual return to normality of the energy markets, the government has decided to gradually reduce the protective effects of this shield. From 1 February 2024, the excise duty on electricity was therefore increased to 21 euros/MWh, resulting in an increase in the regulated sales tariff (TRV) of 9.8%.
The end of the tariff shield
At the same time, the then Minister of Economy, Bruno Le Maire, announced that the normal TICFE tariff, the pre-crisis one, i.e. €32.44/MWh, would be restored on 1 February 2025. , if we take inflation into account. This would mark the end of the tariff shield and bring 3.5 billion euros into state coffers. Nonetheless, families will see their electricity bills fall by an average of 10%, he promised.
Bruno Le Maire didn’t take too many risks. Because the TRV calculation method necessarily induces a future reduction, taking into account the drop in prices on the wholesale markets, which constitutes one of the components of the calculation method.
The current TRV, which dates back to February 1, is therefore partly based on electricity market prices between January 31, 2022 – when prices had increased significantly – and January 31, 2024. The TRV of the 1st February 2025 will take into account, for its part, the evolution of the market between 31 January 2023 and 31 January 2025, thus already integrating part of the drop in prices on the markets. That is, around 10% less, as announced by Bruno Le Maire.
A lower than expected drop in bills
In search of new recipes, Bercy experts discover that there is an avenue to explore. “By raising the TICFE to €36/MWh, the reduction in the electricity bill would be around 9% for the 18 million TRV subscribers»explains Maxime de La Raudière, deputy general manager of the Selectra comparator. It would therefore be a simple way to pass a tax increase that could bring the state 1.5 billion euros. Pretty smart. According to him, “80% of families with regulated tariffs would benefit from a reduction of around 110 euros on their annual bill”.
But not everyone will benefit from this burden. This is especially true for families who have chosen the so-called market offer “fixed price”that is, with a price per kilowatt hour that does not change for one, two or three years, depending on the contract. That would be several million.
On February 1, 2025 they will suffer the increase in the TICFE, without benefiting at the same time from the fall in the price of the electron, since for them it does not move. But they already benefit from significant discounts. “Depending on the offers, the price per kilowatt hour can be up to 28% lower than the TRV and will therefore remain very competitive next year” », specifies Maxime de La Raudière. Particularly active are suppliers such as TotalEnergies, Octopus and La Belle Énergie.
Agnès Pannier-Runacher’s warning
But the mere mention of a new increase in electricity prices, when bills have already increased by more than 40% between January 31, 2022 and February 1, 2024, remains an extremely hot topic.
When questioned on France 3, Sunday 6 October, the Minister of Ecological Transition and Energy, Agnès Pannier-Runacher, warned against “the risk” exaggerate in increasing the electricity tax, recalling the drop in prices on the international market “it allows us to forgive the taxes that the French paid before the energy crisis”, or approximately €32/MWh.
“If we go beyond (32 MWh), the risk is that there will actually be an increase in the price of electricity. We must be very vigilant because the modest French and the middle classes will suffer a double defeat. Often they are the ones who live in thermal colanders”he added, also highlighting the negative impact this could have for businesses, which are also subject to the TICFE.
Cautiously, however, the ministry underlines that in any case parliamentarians will have the last word in the budget debate. And that families affected by an increase in bills can take advantage of the competition.
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