2024-03-26 16:30:27
A recent report by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) expected an improvement in global trade indicators and movement during the first quarter of 2024, compared to the trade movement, which shrank by 3% in 2023 compared to 2022, a record year that witnessed trade reaching $32 trillion.
The decline in the most important commodities was 5%, representing a decrease of $1.3 trillion. While the services sector showed resilience, recording an increase of 8% over the previous year, reaching $500 billion.
Data in the first quarter of this year indicate continued improvement in global trade. Balancing global inflation, improving economic growth prospects, and increasing demand for environmental goods, especially electric vehicles, are expected to boost trade throughout the year.
The last quarter of 2023 witnessed a noticeable shift and stability in trade in goods and services. Trade growth indicators have improved in developing countries, especially within the regions of Africa, East Asia and South Asia.
The report highlighted differences in trade performance between developing and developed countries. While major economies saw a decline in merchandise trade throughout 2023, by the end of 2023, trade in goods saw growth in several major economies, including China and India, but declined for Russia and the European Union.
The report explained that in 2023, developing countries saw a decline in trade of about 4%, while developed countries faced a greater decline of about 6%. South-South trade, which represents developing economies, saw a more pronounced decline of about 7 percent.
However, these indicators reversed in the last quarter of 2023, as developing countries and South-South trade showed growth, while trade in developed countries remained flat.
The report confirmed that continuing geopolitical tensions affected the formation of bilateral trade flows in 2023, as Russia reduced its trade dependence on the European Union in favor of China. Interdependence between China and the United States has also declined further.
Regarding sectors, most industries saw declines in business value, with exceptions such as pharmaceuticals, transportation equipment, and automobiles. Sectors such as clothing, chemicals and textiles also faced significant declines. Most sectors recovered in the last quarter of 2023, with the exception of clothing.
The UNCTAD report warned that geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions continue to pose significant risks and require continuous monitoring. Security issues in the Red Sea and Suez Canal, coupled with climate-related impacts on water levels in the Panama Canal, could increase shipping costs, lengthen journey times, and disrupt supply chains.
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2024-03-26 16:30:27