In its initial attack on Israel, the slain leader of Hamas led to the downfall of the terrorist organization. Now she has to reposition herself. But that is a difficult undertaking.
He leaves behind a field of rubble: the leader of Hamas, Yahya Sinwar, who was killed.
Almost a year ago, shortly after the start of the war in Gaza, Hamas held almost weekly press conferences in the southern Beirut suburb of Dahiye. In an inconspicuous apartment, their spokesman Usama Hamdan appeared in front of journalists’ microphones, announcing victory or accusing Israel of genocide. Technical staff set up a flat screen where the latest death toll figures from the coastal strip were constantly displayed.
Hamas representatives are now barely visible in the Lebanese capital, and the neighborhood where the press conferences took place is being bombed by the Israeli air force. When it became known on Thursday evening that Yahya Sinwar, the head of the Politburo and the person who was mainly responsible for the October 7 massacre, had been killed by Israeli troops in Gaza, Hamas also remained silent. On Friday evening, Khalil al-Haya, the deputy leader of Hamas in the Gaza Strip, confirmed Sinwar’s death. He mourned the death of the “martyr” Sinwar, al-Haya said in a statement on the Al Aksa TV channel. Khalil al-Haya is considered Sinwar’s successor and is Hamas’ most important negotiator outside the Gaza Strip.
A broken organization
Sinwar was the leader of Hamas for two months. He succeeded Ismail Haniya, who died in a suspected Israeli attack in Tehran on July 31. The 61-year-old failed to achieve much during his short tenure in office – which he spent isolated and hiding in the devastated Gaza Strip. However, his organization had already entered the abyss: when he arbitrarily ordered the terrorist attack on Israel as the leader of Gaza Hamas.
Before October 7, Hamas was at the height of its power: it ruled Gaza with an iron fist and not only had thousands of fighters, but also its own government. Palestinian Islamists played an important role in the self-declared “Axis of Resistance” under Iranian leadership. They had escaped competition from Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and Fatah. Even Israel has repeatedly negotiated indirectly with Hamas.
A year later there is nothing left of it. Whoever succeeds Sinwar will take command of a devastated organization whose fighters are waging a seemingly desperate war in the ruins of Gaza against a devastating force. There was no outside help in sight since Israel inflicted heavy losses on Hezbollah – a powerful ally of Hamas – in a lightning campaign and killed its leader Hassan Nasrallah. The war has long since completely slipped away from the Palestinians.
Focused on taking orders
Always in this situation, Hamas must now reposition itself. Sinwar’s deputy Khalil al-Haya and Khaled Mashal, a veteran who led the force from 1996 to 2017, are considered candidates for the top job. Mashal is the opposite of Sinwar: he spent almost his entire life in exile and he is more at home in the corridors of power than on the battlefield. It also has good contacts with the Gulf states. He could therefore try to lead what is left of the organization to an agreement with Israel and end the war.
Good contacts in Tehran: Khaled Mashal (right) with Iranian President Masud Pezeshkian in Doha.
However, it is questionable whether Hamas is still the master of its own house. Because Mashal has already failed to take control again. In August, Iran and Hezbollah allegedly succeeded in blocking his appointment as successor to the slain Haniya. It seems that Mashal, who lived in Doha, was not loyal enough to them. Instead, they forced the election of Sinwar – even though he was already considered a dead man and fit to lead the organization from his post in Gaza.
The episode shows the extent to which the once-independent Palestinians have been reduced to Tehran’s mercy as a result of the disastrous Gaza war. It is doubtful whether the remaining Rangers will be able to free themselves from this grip. What could at least help them is that Tehran now has much bigger problems. In addition to Hamas, the Iranians now have to keep alive the leaderless Hezbollah, which is resisting Israeli ground attacks in Lebanon.
Not for the first time with my back against the wall
But a leader like Mashal is likely to encounter resistance not only in Tehran. Even in Gaza, he can’t be too sure of his followers. Hamas remains popular among many Palestinians there, despite its suicidal policies and thousands of deaths. But most honors go to the troops fighting in the field, not to the exiles in Doha or Istanbul. Furthermore, it is unclear whether Hamas fighters in the Kassam Brigades, considered loyal to Sinwar, would even accept a new leadership team from afar.
This is not the first time in its history, however, that Hamas has its back against the wall. In the early nineties, the organization suffered a devastating blow. Back then, during the second intifada, she overloaded her paper with suicide attacks. Israel retaliated, destroying Hamas cadres and even killing its founder, Sheikh Ahmed Yassin. However, the exhausted group managed to get back up.
A photo of Hamas founder Sheikh Ahmed Yassin in Gaza in 1998.
Led by the likes of Mashal and Haniya, it advanced from a nihilistic struggle to politics, winning the 2006 Palestinian elections and laying the foundations for the eventual rise to power in Gaza. As a result, the Islamists, who emerged only from the Palestinian wing of the Muslim Brotherhood in the 1980s, came to dominate Palestinian politics. Now, after Sinwar’s death, they have to start all over again.