The week began, continues, and most likely will end – in the shadow of the crisis in the education system. As time passes, the deadline of September 1 approaches, and the solution to the crisis does not even appear at the end of the tunnel.
Former senior official in the education system: This is the gap between the teachers and the Ministry of Finance
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As with any crisis during an election, the worst element is the timing, when in terms of the political system, September 1 is a landmark in the election campaign, and anyone who threatens a strike is a king, and any minister who is the head of a party automatically becomes a target for extortion. The teachers’ union understands very well the one-time horizon that the elections open up for educators in their fight to improve their conditions, and act accordingly.
The one who stands at the forefront, to a large extent also politically, is Finance Minister Avigdor Lieberman. And this fight is a combined fight. As the finance minister, he must arrive at a solution to the crisis and prevent a strike, because both the teachers and the parents will become voters on November 1. At the same time, he is conducting a containment battle for voter votes against the competing parties, which seek to gain electorally from the crisis.
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The complex of Lieberman’s tasks and battles led this week to what was portrayed, at least in the media’s view, as a serious political crisis between Lieberman and Prime Minister Yair Lapid. What Lapid sees as part of his role as Prime Minister, in Lieberman’s eyes, is “political interference in the negotiations between the Finance Director and the Teachers’ Union.” Liberman warned and asked that they not interfere in his affairs. Lapid continued to hold meetings with all sides of the crisis. The professional level, fire me first.” Lapid’s office heard, received the message and did not react.
The well-publicized riot caused a celebration of conspiracies, and the striking conclusion was: “The Lieberman-Lapid political axis has permanently collapsed.” In both chambers, Lapid’s and Lieberman’s, they mainly smiled at the announcements of the end of the cooperation between the two. Their associates say that the Prime Minister and the Minister of Finance continued to talk to each other before and during the exchange of blows regarding the education crisis, and will continue to do so in the future.
So the axis did indeed survive, but the political battle between Yesh Atid and Israel Beytinu for the votes of the voters definitely exists, and will even intensify. The pollsters identify between 2 and 4 mandates, which can equally go to Lish Atid and Israel Beytinu. This is an audience that sees itself as a moderate, secular, professionally and socially active right-winger, most of whom are opposed to Netanyahu’s return to power. Therefore, the electoral battle between the parties will continue with caution, while trying not to damage the personal and political relationship between the two party leaders.
In the meantime, Binyamin Netanyahu entered the cauldron (of course not), who, in the uniform of an election campaign, is polishing his eyes at the Russian-speaking voices, many of whom are rooting for Lieberman. The battle is currently taking place on social media and among Russian-speaking Likud activists, still far from the mainstream media.
The main thesis of the Likud, which is leading the campaign against Lieberman and his party, among other things, is that it is necessary to act in every possible way to lower at least one of the three parties of the “Only not Bibi” bloc – Israel Beitnou, Meretz and Ream – below the percentage of blocking. You will not enter the Knesset, the main goal will be achieved – and the Likud bloc reaches 61 and returns to power.
It should be noted that this calculation is mathematically correct, but not necessarily politically correct. In Israel Beytinu has always claimed that no surveyor knows how to correctly gauge the public of their voters. “Look at what we get in the polls, add 2 mandates and you get a result that pretty much reflects our real situation on the ground,” Lieberman’s people say.
The Ukrainian card
In Likud they are still looking for the right way to attack Israel at home, because they still remember how on the second day of the 2019 elections the aggressive attacks on it actually increased its strength from 5 to 8 mandates.
The journey to attract votes from Israel Beytinu is conducted in several parallel tracks. The official campaign launched by Likud’s “Russian headquarters” attacks Liberman for leading to the formation of a government with an Arab list: “Lieberman took your money and gave it to the Muslim Brotherhood. Shame on voting for Israel as our home.”
It is interesting that, despite the appeal to the Russian-speaking audience, this time too the Likud list remained almost devoid of significant Russian-speaking figures, with the cadre even dwindling: Zev Elkin left with Gideon Sa’ar, Yuli Edelstein weakened dramatically, and not a single Russian-speaking candidate among those who competed in the primaries for the immigrant slot came close to the result worthy
In view of the fact that those who want to attack Lieberman’s party and take away his voters present a list almost devoid of Russian speakers, Netanyahu’s surroundings are looking for a candidate worthy of armor, and recently the name of Stella Weinstein came up as an option. Weinstein, the former executive director of Yamina, started her career in municipal politics as a representative of Israel Beytenu. Today, she is often a guest in the studios and attacks Lieberman from the position of “Generation 1.5”, the generation of the children of the Great Aliyah. In Israel Beytenu are not moved by the attacks of their former member, and neither are Netanyahu’s advisers They are not enthusiastic about her, due to her non-fluent Russian.
Another line of the Likud against Lieberman is conducted in parallel with the official campaign and is operated by Russian-speaking activists. The corresponding campaign is much more aggressive and negative, and it is also conducted on social networks. What stars in this campaign is the Ukrainian card. The thesis relied on by the campaign operators claims that the majority of the immigrant public from the CIS countries support Ukraine and oppose the war led by Russian President Putin.
As a result, the “Ukrainian campaign” presents Lieberman as Putin’s friend. This, despite the fact that the members of Israel Beytinu have spoken out against the war in recent months. The leaders of the campaign found and distributed a video from four months ago, in which the adviser to the President of Ukraine, Oleksiy Arstovich, speaks of Lieberman as “someone who has met a lot with Putin and knows how he is received in Moscow when he comes to visit.”
Erstovich’s words were originally spoken in April, when the world was exposed to the horrific war crimes committed by the Russian army in the town of Bucha on the outskirts of Kyiv. So Lieberman was asked in an interview about his opinion on the issue and answered cautiously. As he explained later, the careful choice of words was due to the fact that Israel’s military interest in Syria and other arenas had to be taken into account, but the Ukrainians were hurt and angry.
The irony of fate is that Netanyahu himself may pay a price if he makes careless use of the Ukrainian card. Recently, Likud asked to check the attitude towards the war among the former Soviet Union. According to the research data, about half of them, a little more than 50%, unequivocally support the Ukrainian side and oppose the Russian invasion. Another 25% answered something like “I wish success to both sides”, and another 25% answered that they think Russia is the right side.
In any case, it must be assumed that most of those surveyed have not had time to forget the bombastic “Netanyahu – Another League” outdoor campaign, in which giant signs were hung with the couple’s picture of Netanyahu and Putin warmly shaking hands. Old officials in the system recently warned Netanyahu that the fact that he did not publicly attack Putin, combined with the good relations he boasted at the time, could cause electoral damage to Likud. “You are seen as a friend of Putin, as one who is silent in the face of war crimes. You must speak out on the matter” – they urged Netanyahu.
So far, Netanyahu has not made a clear statement on the issue, but it is not impossible that the electoral considerations will decide, and in the end we will hear from the Likud chairman an updated position regarding Putin, his actions in Ukraine and the situation of the “other league” in light of the changes in reality.
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