In this hot country there is no shade and no kindness in the summer, not even for the governments beyond. Even before he had time to learn from which side the door to his office opens, the new Prime Minister demanded Yair Lapid To stand this summer in two challenging matriculation exams: a political crisis with Russia and the potential for military friction with Hezbollah.
Israel tried its best to walk between the drops in the crisis in Ukraine: it condemned the Russians, but the condemnation was weak, it agreed to help the Ukrainians, but only with protective equipment – and now it is getting wet. Russia recognized the weakness in the Israeli indecision, as the former chairman of the agency aptly diagnosed Natan Sharansky, and now she clicks. This is a basic KGB tactic, said Sharansky, who learned the KGB’s methods first hand.
At the time of writing these lines, the Israeli delegation is in Moscow, trying to bring about a solution to the crisis surrounding the activities of the Jewish Agency. It would not be far-fetched to estimate that this crisis will not be resolved soon. Russia has a complicated and multi-armed bureaucracy, which excels at managing protracted crises, while rolling the crisis from one court to another. It is also possible that the Russians have already sentenced Israel, and the agency will be forced to cease its activities in Russia.
The encouraging point is that the Russians chose to create the crisis with Israel on a “soft” issue, such as the agency’s activities, and not in the military arena in Syria. There they were probably satisfied with just signaling: Defense Minister Benny Gantz this week publicly confirmed my publication from about two months ago, that a Russian S300 battery fired at the Air Force planes that attacked in Syria. This was the first time that Russia activated its air defenses in Syria against Israeli planes.
On May 13, the Air Force launched another attack on a military plant in the Masyaf region of Syria. Notice of the planned attack was conveyed to the Russians, as always, in the coordination mechanism between the armies. Nevertheless, after the Israeli planes finished the attack and returned to Israel’s airspace, an S300 battery operated by the Russians launched several missiles. The shooting did not endanger the Israeli planes, even though the S300 interceptor could chase our plane until it landed in Israel.
The Russian military attaché in Israel was called for a clarification conversation and claimed that it was an accidental shooting. “A one-time event,” Gantz defined it. Indeed, the Russians have refrained from acting in all the attacks carried out by Israel since then in Syria. But this one-time event was probably a signal from the Russians that they would not shy away from escalating friction in the military arena as well. If we reach the stage where Russia activates its S400 and S300 batteries deployed in Syria against Israeli aircraft, the Air Force will have difficulty operating there without damaging the Russian batteries and the Russian soldiers who man them. This incident is yet another reminder that Russia was not and is not an ally of Israel, contrary to what some sycophants from the opposition leader’s camp tweeted this week. Let’s not get confused: the warm handshakes they exchanged Benjamin Netanyahu and Naftali Bennett With Vladimir Putin They do not change the fact that Russia is traditionally careful to stand by Israel’s enemies.
Vladimir Putin (Photo: Reuters)In the last decade, when the Russian superpower became a close neighbor, Israel wisely cultivated relations of mutual respect and consideration for its threatening proximity. These relations were also based on a genuine sentiment that Putin has for Israel and the Jewish people. Putin grew up in a Jewish environment in St. Petersburg, and unlike many other gentiles, it was an experience he remembers well. The oligarchs surrounding him are mostly Jews, and he also has a sentiment for Israel, where more than a million citizens speak his language.
But his sentiment ends where interests begin. This has been proven time and time again in the past and also now, when he chose to harm his Jewish community by limiting the agency’s activities. This damage can still be repaired, and Israel should not stand at the head of the anti-Russian camp in the world. The Russian position is important to respect, but in the end, we have to remember that our true and only alliance is on the other side of the ocean.
A generous offer
On Sunday, the US will send its special envoy for energy issues to Beirut, and with him an Israeli proposal to resolve the dispute over the maritime border line between us and Lebanon. The Israeli proposal is generous and takes into account Lebanese interests, with the understanding that we have an interest in Lebanon also being able to benefit from the gas reserves that are buried under its economic waters. It seems possible to reach an agreement with Lebanon within weeks. What’s more, Hezbollah’s threats increase the urgency of resolving the dispute before gas production from the “Sharish” reservoir begins in September. The appearance of Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah this week, in a nightly television interview, created in Israel the impression that he is himself He has not yet decided whether to risk a confrontation with Israel on the border and gas issue.
Interception of Hezbollah aircraft that made their way to the Shark rig (photo: IDF spokesman)In an interview, Nasrallah outlined a narrative that would justify any decision he chooses: if he allows the Lebanese government to reach an agreement with Israel, he can claim that a good agreement was reached thanks to his threats. But at the same time, he also built an alibi to justify his action against the “Shark” rig. He knows that an open attack on the rig would put him at risk of a confrontation with Israel, which would wreak havoc on him and his country. However, between an attack and inaction – he still has a range of provocative actions, the risk of which is lower.
That is why Israel takes his threats seriously and increases the protection of the “Shark” rig, which is not an easy target for defense for the sea and air forces. If the heat, humidity and another sweaty election campaign that we have been condemned to have is not enough, this summer we will also have to stay alert to prevent evil that may open our conscience.
The writer is the military commentator of News 13
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